NBA games

LAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
109122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC27233029109
DEN35243330122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DEN
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 34 25 5 9
Kawhi Leonard S 31 21 3 6
John Collins S 31 18 6 4
Ivica Zubac S 30 13 7 2
Kobe Sanders 23 8 2 2
Jordan Miller 19 7 3 0
Nicolas Batum 22 6 3 1
Kris Dunn S 25 5 2 5
Kobe Brown 4 3 0 0
Cam Christie 4 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 25 31 12 5
Tim Hardaway Jr. 25 22 2 0
Peyton Watson S 35 21 4 3
Jamal Murray S 36 20 4 9
Jonas Valanciunas 21 11 6 2
Bruce Brown 26 6 2 3
Spencer Jones S 35 4 6 1
Julian Strawther 17 3 3 3
Zeke Nnaji 2 2 0 0
DaRon Holmes II 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Spencer Jones · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Spencer Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden LAC
15%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Peyton Watson DEN
11%
4 John Collins LAC
10%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC
8%
8 Jonas Valanciunas DEN
8%
9 Jalen Pickett DEN
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
49%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.2 11.5 11.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 28.1 4.1 9.0
3 James Harden LAC 26.7 5.1 8.6
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.2 5.7 4.1
5 Peyton Watson DEN 21.8 5.9 3.7
6 John Collins LAC 15.0 4.7 1.3
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 14.8 3.5 2.0
8 Jordan Miller LAC 14.8 4.1 2.4
9 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.4 10.6 1.9
10 Jalen Pickett DEN 9.9 3.9 4.2
11 Bruce Brown DEN 9.7 4.1 2.5
12 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 9.4 6.4 1.5
13 Kobe Sanders LAC 9.1 3.0 1.6
14 Kris Dunn LAC 7.9 2.9 3.2
15 Spencer Jones DEN 7.4 3.7 1.0
16 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.5 5.8 1.3
17 Brook Lopez LAC 6.0 3.5 1.0
18 Julian Strawther DEN 5.5 1.7 1.2
19 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 5.0 3.1 0.6
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.7 2.6 0.9
21 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.7 2.0 1.1
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.2 2.1 1.2
23 Cam Christie LAC 3.8 1.6 0.8
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. LAC 3.3 1.3 0.8
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.5 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.