LAC @ DEN
NBA
Ball Arena
·Final
109–122
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 27 | 23 | 30 | 29 | 109 |
| DEN | 35 | 24 | 33 | 30 | 122 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC
away
home
DEN
68%
32%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden S | 34 | 25 | 5 | 9 |
| Kawhi Leonard S | 31 | 21 | 3 | 6 |
| John Collins S | 31 | 18 | 6 | 4 |
| Ivica Zubac S | 30 | 13 | 7 | 2 |
| Kobe Sanders | 23 | 8 | 2 | 2 |
| Jordan Miller | 19 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Nicolas Batum | 22 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Kris Dunn S | 25 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| Kobe Brown | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Christie | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Spencer Jones ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Spencer Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
James Harden
LAC
15%
2
Jamal Murray
DEN
11%
3
Peyton Watson
DEN
11%
4
John Collins
LAC
10%
5
Ivica Zubac
LAC
9%
6
Nikola Jokic
DEN
8%
7
Kawhi Leonard
LAC
8%
8
Jonas Valanciunas
DEN
8%
9
Jalen Pickett
DEN
7%
10
Kris Dunn
LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
49%
Layup
19%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikola Jokic | DEN | 31.2 | 11.5 | 11.0 |
| 2 | Jamal Murray | DEN | 28.1 | 4.1 | 9.0 |
| 3 | James Harden | LAC | 26.7 | 5.1 | 8.6 |
| 4 | Kawhi Leonard | LAC | 25.2 | 5.7 | 4.1 |
| 5 | Peyton Watson | DEN | 21.8 | 5.9 | 3.7 |
| 6 | John Collins | LAC | 15.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 |
| 7 | Tim Hardaway Jr. | DEN | 14.8 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| 8 | Jordan Miller | LAC | 14.8 | 4.1 | 2.4 |
| 9 | Ivica Zubac | LAC | 13.4 | 10.6 | 1.9 |
| 10 | Jalen Pickett | DEN | 9.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| 11 | Bruce Brown | DEN | 9.7 | 4.1 | 2.5 |
| 12 | Jonas Valanciunas | DEN | 9.4 | 6.4 | 1.5 |
| 13 | Kobe Sanders | LAC | 9.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 14 | Kris Dunn | LAC | 7.9 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| 15 | Spencer Jones | DEN | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| 16 | Zeke Nnaji | DEN | 6.5 | 5.8 | 1.3 |
| 17 | Brook Lopez | LAC | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| 18 | Julian Strawther | DEN | 5.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 19 | Yanic Konan Niederhauser | LAC | 5.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| 20 | Nicolas Batum | LAC | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 21 | DaRon Holmes II | DEN | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 22 | Hunter Tyson | DEN | 4.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 23 | Cam Christie | LAC | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 24 | Patrick Baldwin Jr. | LAC | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 25 | Kobe Brown | LAC | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.