NBA games

CLE @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
113–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE25223234113
PHX26264529126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home PHX
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter 23 17 3 1
Donovan Mitchell S 28 16 3 6
Jaylon Tyson S 25 16 4 3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 25 14 5 1
Jarrett Allen S 23 12 7 3
Sam Merrill S 19 10 2 2
Larry Nance Jr. 10 9 3 2
Thomas Bryant 25 9 6 6
Tyrese Proctor 18 4 0 5
Lonzo Ball 25 3 6 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 24 27 2 3
Jordan Goodwin 22 17 5 1
Collin Gillespie S 24 16 2 5
Grayson Allen S 27 13 5 5
Royce O'Neale S 24 12 5 2
Jalen Green 16 11 4 1
Mark Williams S 23 10 7 2
Jamaree Bouyea 21 7 0 5
Rasheer Fleming 6 5 3 0
Isaiah Livers 7 4 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grayson Allen · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three pointer (Collin Gillespie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
2 Dillon Brooks PHX
13%
3 Mark Williams PHX
11%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
5 Grayson Allen PHX
11%
6 Royce O'Neale PHX
10%
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE
9%
8 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
9 Dean Wade CLE
6%
10 Sam Merrill CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
19%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.2 4.9 6.4
2 Jaylon Tyson CLE 19.5 5.8 4.0
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 19.2 4.6 2.3
4 Grayson Allen PHX 19.1 4.0 3.8
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.8 3.8 3.6
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.2 7.6 1.5
7 Mark Williams PHX 11.8 8.0 1.3
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.4 4.0 2.4
9 Sam Merrill CLE 11.1 2.6 2.0
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.9 3.7 3.8
11 Jalen Green PHX 9.0 1.8 1.6
12 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 8.1 3.0 1.4
13 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 6.9 3.7 1.7
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.8 4.6 2.5
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.8 4.5 1.6
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.4 4.2 1.3
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.9 3.2 3.5
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.7 2.8 1.2
19 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.9 1.4 1.0
20 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.8 2.7 0.8
21 Lonzo Ball CLE 4.1 2.8 1.6
22 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.6 1.9 0.6
23 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.4 2.1 0.8
24 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.8 1.5 0.5
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.5 1.6 0.5
26 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.5 1.9 0.5
27 Nick Richards PHX 1.7 2.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.