NBA games

CHI @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
125–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI31253534125
MIA25382134118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIA
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu S 37 29 8 9
Matas Buzelis S 33 21 8 4
Isaac Okoro S 34 20 1 3
Patrick Williams S 34 15 4 2
Jevon Carter 20 11 5 1
Kevin Huerter S 22 9 7 5
Dalen Terry 29 9 3 7
Yuki Kawamura 11 6 3 2
Julian Phillips 12 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pelle Larsson S 33 22 7 4
Bam Adebayo S 36 21 11 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 32 20 6 7
Andrew Wiggins S 33 17 1 1
Myron Gardner S 23 12 11 0
Simone Fontecchio 18 8 2 0
Dru Smith 20 8 3 6
Kasparas Jakucionis S 27 6 3 5
Nikola Jovic 15 2 2 1
Kel'el Ware 3 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pelle Larsson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Pelle Larsson makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Norman Powell MIA
14%
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA
13%
4 Pelle Larsson MIA
11%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
6 Coby White CHI
9%
7 Isaac Okoro CHI
9%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
9%
9 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA
8%
10 Patrick Williams CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
31%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.4 9.8 3.9
2 Norman Powell MIA 20.8 4.0 3.1
3 Coby White CHI 20.6 4.1 5.8
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.0 3.7 3.6
5 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.6 5.6 3.3
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.0 5.6 3.4
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.4 5.8 5.2
8 Pelle Larsson MIA 12.0 4.5 3.4
9 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.3 3.0 1.8
10 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.0 2.7 5.9
11 Kevin Huerter CHI 8.7 3.7 2.6
12 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.6 4.4 1.8
13 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.3 5.5 1.0
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.6 3.3 1.3
15 Dru Smith MIA 6.6 3.3 2.6
16 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.9 2.6 2.7
17 Patrick Williams CHI 5.7 2.4 1.2
18 Jahmir Young MIA 5.1 1.3 1.4
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.1 2.0 0.9
20 Jevon Carter CHI 3.8 0.9 0.6
21 Julian Phillips CHI 3.4 1.5 0.7
22 Emanuel Miller CHI 3.4 1.3 0.7
23 Myron Gardner MIA 3.4 2.3 0.9
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.1 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.