NBA games

MEM @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
106–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM32291530106
NO28303521114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home NO
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Spencer S 24 16 1 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 16 9 2
Vince Williams Jr. 25 13 3 3
Cedric Coward S 23 13 5 5
Jock Landale S 31 12 8 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 25 11 2 2
Jaylen Wells S 26 10 4 4
John Konchar 22 9 4 2
GG Jackson 18 4 8 5
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 12 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derik Queen S 34 22 9 7
Saddiq Bey S 34 22 8 2
Zion Williamson S 33 21 7 4
Herbert Jones S 30 16 4 1
Jose Alvarado 23 11 1 2
Trey Murphy III S 33 8 1 2
Jeremiah Fears 17 6 4 3
Karlo Matkovic 14 5 4 1
Micah Peavy 7 3 0 1
Yves Missi 14 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 3-foot two point shot (Cedric Coward assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
14%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
4 Zion Williamson NO
10%
5 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
6 Derik Queen NO
9%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
8 Ty Jerome MEM
8%
9 Jock Landale MEM
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
21%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 23.3 5.2 5.1
2 Zion Williamson NO 21.7 7.3 3.8
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.6 6.4 2.4
4 Saddiq Bey NO 19.6 5.4 3.1
5 Cedric Coward MEM 15.1 5.8 3.0
6 Jock Landale MEM 13.8 8.0 2.1
7 Cam Spencer MEM 13.5 3.8 8.3
8 Jeremiah Fears NO 11.7 4.0 2.9
9 Derik Queen NO 10.7 7.6 5.0
10 GG Jackson MEM 10.4 3.7 1.3
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.0 3.4 1.5
12 Herbert Jones NO 9.3 3.6 2.6
13 Jordan Poole NO 8.6 1.8 1.9
14 Ty Jerome MEM 8.6 2.1 2.9
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.3 3.6 3.5
16 Yves Missi NO 7.9 7.9 1.4
17 Jose Alvarado NO 6.8 2.7 2.7
18 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 6.8 2.7 1.9
19 Micah Peavy NO 6.0 2.6 1.5
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 5.6 2.1 1.1
21 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.6 2.9 0.7
22 John Konchar MEM 5.3 3.4 1.4
23 Kevon Looney NO 2.9 5.0 1.0
24 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.8 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.