NBA games

POR @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
97–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2227202897
NY37222840127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home NY
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 28 26 3 3
Sidy Cissoko 27 15 2 2
Jerami Grant 22 15 1 2
Caleb Love 27 12 3 4
Deni Avdija S 28 11 5 3
Donovan Clingan S 22 7 6 1
Jrue Holiday S 22 5 2 4
Robert Williams III 20 4 11 3
Javonte Cooke 4 2 0 0
Rayan Rupert 9 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 34 26 1 3
OG Anunoby S 31 24 6 3
Josh Hart S 30 20 6 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 14 20 3
Tyler Kolek 18 13 2 4
Mohamed Diawara 17 10 3 2
Mikal Bridges S 33 10 2 5
Dillon Jones 4 3 0 0
Landry Shamet 19 3 1 2
Ariel Hukporti 4 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Hart · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Josh Hart makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
2 OG Anunoby NY
11%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
5 Deni Avdija POR
10%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
7 Toumani Camara POR
8%
8 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
10 Josh Hart NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
44%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 27.1 7.1 6.3
2 Jalen Brunson NY 23.7 3.6 5.4
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.7 5.8 3.7
4 OG Anunoby NY 19.4 5.5 3.7
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 17.8 10.9 3.2
6 Jerami Grant POR 17.2 4.2 2.3
7 Mikal Bridges NY 17.1 4.0 3.6
8 Caleb Love POR 14.9 3.2 3.7
9 Josh Hart NY 13.8 7.2 5.7
10 Toumani Camara POR 13.8 4.6 2.4
11 Jrue Holiday POR 12.4 3.6 5.2
12 Donovan Clingan POR 11.8 9.8 2.2
13 Landry Shamet NY 7.3 2.2 1.6
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.6 9.5 1.0
15 Sidy Cissoko POR 6.6 2.6 1.1
16 Kris Murray POR 6.5 2.7 1.2
17 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.4 1.8 1.1
18 Blake Wesley POR 6.1 2.4 2.8
19 Tyler Kolek NY 5.5 2.0 2.8
20 Robert Williams III POR 4.8 5.3 0.8
21 Rayan Rupert POR 4.6 2.0 1.2
22 Dillon Jones NY 3.1 3.0 0.7
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.9 3.4 0.7
24 Guerschon Yabusele NY 2.8 2.0 0.7
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.4 1.2 0.6
26 Yang Hansen POR 2.4 1.4 0.7
27 Javonte Cooke POR 2.3 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.