NBA games

SAC @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
93–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2521202793
BOS40321723112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home BOS
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 23 17 4 1
Nique Clifford 34 15 3 1
Maxime Raynaud S 36 14 14 1
Malik Monk 23 12 3 4
Dylan Cardwell 28 8 8 1
DeMar DeRozan S 18 6 1 2
Keon Ellis 20 6 2 2
Devin Carter 11 5 3 2
Dennis Schroder S 24 4 4 3
Precious Achiuwa S 13 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard S 33 29 2 8
Baylor Scheierman S 31 16 5 1
Anfernee Simons 26 16 2 1
Luka Garza 16 11 8 1
Neemias Queta S 29 10 15 2
Sam Hauser S 30 10 3 1
Derrick White S 33 7 2 9
Jordan Walsh 16 5 3 0
Josh Minott 2 3 0 1
Chris Boucher 4 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
3 Derrick White BOS
12%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
12%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
12%
6 Precious Achiuwa SAC
11%
7 Dennis Schroder SAC
8%
8 Sam Hauser BOS
8%
9 Nique Clifford SAC
8%
10 Zach LaVine SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
33%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 28.0 8.1 5.4
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.1 3.5 4.7
3 Zach LaVine SAC 17.1 2.7 2.7
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.8 4.1 5.2
5 Derrick White BOS 15.8 5.8 5.2
6 Malik Monk SAC 15.2 2.6 3.4
7 Anfernee Simons BOS 15.2 3.2 2.7
8 Sam Hauser BOS 14.1 5.2 2.4
9 Dennis Schroder SAC 13.3 2.7 4.0
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.7 7.1 1.6
11 Precious Achiuwa SAC 10.1 7.2 1.4
12 Luka Garza BOS 8.4 4.2 1.6
13 Nique Clifford SAC 6.2 3.7 1.4
14 Maxime Raynaud SAC 6.0 5.2 1.1
15 Dylan Cardwell SAC 5.8 8.0 1.2
16 Keon Ellis SAC 5.5 1.7 0.7
17 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.5 3.3 1.4
18 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.1 2.9 0.8
19 Josh Minott BOS 4.7 1.8 0.9
20 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.6 3.4 0.8
21 Isaiah Stevens SAC 4.6 1.4 1.5
22 Dario Saric SAC 4.2 1.7 0.6
23 Chris Boucher BOS 4.1 3.0 0.6
24 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 3.6 1.2 0.5
25 Devin Carter SAC 2.8 1.1 0.8
26 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.3 1.3 0.2
27 Doug McDermott SAC 2.2 0.6 0.3
28 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.8 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.