NBA games

LAL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
142–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL41363134142
WSH27213627111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home WSH
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 31 37 11 13
Deandre Ayton S 29 28 13 3
LeBron James S 30 20 3 6
Rui Hachimura 18 11 2 2
Jaxson Hayes 14 10 3 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 16 8 2 1
Gabe Vincent 18 6 0 2
Maxi Kleber 5 4 3 1
Drew Timme 17 4 1 3
Dalton Knecht 5 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malaki Branham 22 17 1 0
Alex Sarr S 28 16 6 5
Bub Carrington S 25 15 3 6
Kyshawn George S 27 15 3 6
Will Riley 25 13 2 5
Anthony Gill 17 9 10 0
Justin Champagnie S 24 9 4 0
Jamir Watkins 35 8 6 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 24 7 2 2
Sharife Cooper 13 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes layup (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
20%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
16%
3 Kyshawn George WSH
13%
4 LeBron James LAL
12%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
7 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
8 Jake LaRavia LAL
8%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
0%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
8%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 30.1 6.8 9.2
2 LeBron James LAL 24.9 6.9 6.5
3 Kyshawn George WSH 19.8 6.3 5.6
4 Alex Sarr WSH 18.8 7.8 2.5
5 Bub Carrington WSH 13.3 3.6 5.5
6 Marcus Smart LAL 12.3 3.4 2.1
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.4 8.7 1.0
8 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.2 6.2 1.8
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.1 5.0 2.3
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.0 3.3 1.2
11 Jake LaRavia LAL 10.0 3.8 2.6
12 Will Riley WSH 7.2 2.2 1.3
13 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.7 4.3 0.9
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.5 1.5 1.1
15 Jamir Watkins WSH 5.5 4.2 1.2
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.1 4.0 1.4
17 Malaki Branham WSH 4.7 1.9 1.2
18 Drew Timme LAL 4.3 1.7 0.9
19 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.9 1.4 0.6
20 Sharife Cooper WSH 3.2 0.5 0.5
21 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.1 1.8 0.8
22 Bronny James LAL 2.9 1.1 0.7
23 AJ Johnson WSH 2.8 1.3 0.8
24 Anthony Gill WSH 2.5 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.