NBA games

TOR @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
120–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR28294221120
ORL29213644130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home ORL
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 35 35 3 2
Scottie Barnes S 36 19 8 6
RJ Barrett S 31 16 3 5
Ja'Kobe Walter 16 13 3 1
Immanuel Quickley S 33 13 7 6
Collin Murray-Boyles S 33 12 6 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili 24 8 4 4
Jamal Shead 21 4 1 4
Gradey Dick 7 0 2 1
Ochai Agbaji 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 36 32 1 2
Anthony Black S 40 25 4 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 35 23 7 3
Paolo Banchero S 41 20 9 6
Jalen Suggs S 33 14 6 10
Tristan da Silva 22 8 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 13 4 4 0
Tyus Jones 10 3 0 1
Moritz Wagner 3 1 0 0
Noah Penda 7 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 5-foot two point shot (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
6 Anthony Black ORL
9%
7 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
27%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.0 9.1 5.4
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.6 8.3 6.6
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 21.6 5.6 4.3
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 20.9 4.7 6.1
5 Desmond Bane ORL 19.3 4.2 3.9
6 RJ Barrett TOR 18.7 5.6 3.2
7 Anthony Black ORL 17.5 4.5 5.2
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 17.0 3.7 4.9
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 13.5 5.6 2.3
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.5 6.5 2.5
11 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 10.9 7.7 3.3
12 Jamal Shead TOR 10.5 2.6 5.5
13 Gradey Dick TOR 8.8 3.3 1.1
14 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.0 2.2 1.4
15 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.1 2.5 0.7
16 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.1 2.7 1.3
17 Noah Penda ORL 7.0 4.2 1.5
18 Jase Richardson ORL 6.1 1.7 1.1
19 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.9 2.5 0.9
20 Tyus Jones ORL 4.2 1.4 2.4
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.0 4.9 0.6
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.8 1.7 0.7
23 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.1 1.4 0.4
24 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.0 2.3 0.9
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.8 2.3 0.7
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.4 1.0 0.6
27 Jett Howard ORL 2.4 1.1 0.7
28 Alijah Martin TOR 2.3 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.