NBA games

OKC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
111–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC22283031111
MIN34293327123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIN
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 31 30 6 8
Chet Holmgren S 30 15 5 2
Cason Wallace 26 13 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein 18 11 5 2
Aaron Wiggins S 25 10 4 5
Kenrich Williams 18 7 3 1
Isaiah Joe 25 6 3 3
Jaylin Williams S 27 5 4 1
Luguentz Dort S 27 5 4 2
Chris Youngblood 4 5 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 35 26 5 5
Jaden McDaniels S 31 21 4 4
Naz Reid 29 18 7 2
Rudy Gobert S 34 14 11 3
Julius Randle S 25 13 5 5
Donte DiVincenzo S 32 11 5 5
Bones Hyland 23 9 4 1
Jaylen Clark 15 7 3 1
Johnny Juzang 3 2 1 0
Rob Dillingham 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Jaden McDaniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
5 Julius Randle MIN
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC
6%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
50%
Jumper
7%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.6 4.9 5.9
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.4 6.1 4.4
3 Julius Randle MIN 24.0 6.3 4.4
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.5 10.0 1.7
5 Naz Reid MIN 16.3 6.8 3.1
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.1 4.9 3.6
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 14.0 5.3 5.1
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.2 5.1 2.0
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.5 11.5 1.6
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.9 9.1 2.7
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.7 4.6 1.8
12 Bones Hyland MIN 8.5 2.5 2.9
13 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.1 3.7 1.4
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.8 2.3 1.2
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.2 2.9 1.6
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.9 4.5 2.3
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.2 1.7 1.3
18 Joan Beringer MIN 4.9 3.5 0.7
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.6 2.4 1.0
20 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.2 1.3 0.7
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.1 1.4 1.1
22 Leonard Miller MIN 2.6 1.3 0.3
23 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.3 1.4 0.6
24 Joe Ingles MIN 2.2 0.9 1.0
25 Chris Youngblood OKC 1.7 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.