NBA games

DET @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
96–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET3125251596
PHX35372121114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home PHX
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 34 26 3 7
Jalen Duren S 28 23 13 4
Tobias Harris S 30 13 5 1
Isaiah Stewart 24 11 2 0
Duncan Robinson S 30 9 1 1
Ausar Thompson S 25 6 4 6
Daniss Jenkins 23 6 3 5
Paul Reed 4 2 0 0
Javonte Green 11 0 2 0
Bobi Klintman 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 33 40 8 4
Grayson Allen S 34 24 3 5
Collin Gillespie S 26 16 5 2
Royce O'Neale S 28 10 2 2
Mark Williams S 25 6 5 1
Oso Ighodaro 20 6 9 2
Jamaree Bouyea 20 6 2 1
Ryan Dunn 13 3 2 0
Jordan Goodwin 23 2 4 3
Isaiah Livers 11 1 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dillon Brooks · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Dillon Brooks makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
12%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
11%
4 Mark Williams PHX
10%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Tobias Harris DET
9%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
8 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
9 Jordan Goodwin PHX
7%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
28%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.1 5.1 10.0
2 Grayson Allen PHX 18.5 4.0 3.5
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 17.4 4.4 2.3
4 Jalen Duren DET 15.6 10.2 1.8
5 Tobias Harris DET 12.8 4.0 2.3
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.6 4.0 3.4
7 Mark Williams PHX 12.1 8.2 1.3
8 Duncan Robinson DET 11.4 2.9 1.6
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.0 4.1 3.7
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.3 5.4 1.4
11 Ausar Thompson DET 10.0 6.6 2.6
12 Ronald Holland II DET 9.2 5.0 1.5
13 Daniss Jenkins DET 9.0 2.3 4.6
14 Jaden Ivey DET 8.7 2.8 1.5
15 Javonte Green DET 8.1 3.1 1.0
16 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 8.0 3.0 1.4
17 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.8 4.9 2.3
18 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.5 3.8 1.6
19 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.6 2.9 1.3
20 Paul Reed DET 4.5 4.6 1.3
21 Marcus Sasser DET 4.4 1.2 1.3
22 Chaz Lanier DET 2.9 1.1 0.6
23 Bobi Klintman DET 2.8 1.9 0.7
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.7 1.2 0.5
25 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.7 1.6 0.5
26 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.6 1.2 0.6
27 Nick Richards PHX 1.5 2.4 0.4
28 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.5 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.