NBA games

BKN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
103–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN26232727103
DEN30341528107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home DEN
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 38 10 3
Terance Mann S 29 12 6 1
Nic Claxton S 31 10 8 7
Nolan Traore S 30 9 2 4
Jalen Wilson 13 8 1 1
Danny Wolf S 28 7 4 3
Drake Powell 20 7 1 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 7 9 1
Tyrese Martin 17 5 6 0
Ben Saraf 18 0 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 33 27 4 6
Tim Hardaway Jr. 28 25 8 3
Peyton Watson S 34 19 2 3
Bruce Brown 33 12 3 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 25 12 9 3
Julian Strawther 22 7 1 1
Zeke Nnaji 23 4 7 1
Spencer Jones S 15 1 1 0
Jalen Pickett S 15 0 3 3
Hunter Tyson 13 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
15%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
5 Peyton Watson DEN
10%
6 Jonas Valanciunas DEN
10%
7 Jalen Pickett DEN
8%
8 Terance Mann BKN
7%
9 Drake Powell BKN
7%
10 Spencer Jones DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
23%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 28.2 4.2 9.0
2 Peyton Watson DEN 23.6 6.3 3.7
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 23.4 6.0 3.5
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.3 6.2 4.0
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.8 3.1 2.0
6 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.7 2.8 1.3
7 Nic Claxton BKN 10.6 7.2 3.5
8 Jalen Pickett DEN 10.4 4.3 4.7
9 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 9.3 6.5 1.4
10 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.8 7.1 1.7
11 Nolan Traore BKN 8.7 1.7 3.0
12 Bruce Brown DEN 8.2 4.1 2.4
13 Danny Wolf BKN 7.5 4.6 1.4
14 Terance Mann BKN 7.4 2.8 3.0
15 Spencer Jones DEN 7.4 4.0 1.1
16 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.9 5.3 1.3
17 Drake Powell BKN 6.3 1.8 1.5
18 Ben Saraf BKN 6.2 1.6 2.0
19 Julian Strawther DEN 6.0 1.7 1.2
20 Tyrese Martin BKN 4.8 1.5 0.7
21 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.8 2.1 1.2
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.3 1.4 0.5
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.6 1.5 0.9
24 E.J. Liddell BKN 2.1 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.