NBA games

CHA @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
123–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA33263430123
DAL20383528121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home DAL
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 36 34 4 3
Brandon Miller S 27 23 6 2
LaMelo Ball S 31 22 3 9
Miles Bridges S 38 17 8 8
Moussa Diabate S 32 10 5 3
Collin Sexton 20 8 2 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner 15 5 3 0
Josh Green 15 2 3 1
Tidjane Salaun 10 2 3 0
Sion James 16 0 8 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 38 49 10 3
Klay Thompson 27 16 3 1
Brandon Williams 21 15 1 6
P.J. Washington S 35 14 9 3
Max Christie S 29 13 3 3
Caleb Martin S 27 6 11 2
Daniel Gafford S 25 5 4 3
Moussa Cisse 17 3 5 0
Dwight Powell 5 0 2 0
Ryan Nembhard 9 0 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kon Knueppel CHA
12%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
5 Moussa Diabate CHA
10%
6 Max Christie DAL
10%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Caleb Martin DAL
8%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
26%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 23.4 4.9 4.3
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 17.6 6.2 4.8
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 17.4 4.1 6.2
4 Brandon Williams DAL 16.6 4.2 2.9
5 Max Christie DAL 16.4 3.9 2.5
6 Kon Knueppel CHA 16.4 5.7 4.0
7 Miles Bridges CHA 13.3 4.7 2.6
8 Klay Thompson DAL 11.3 2.6 1.9
9 Collin Sexton CHA 11.0 2.4 3.6
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.5 9.1 1.4
11 P.J. Washington DAL 10.5 5.8 1.4
12 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.3 5.7 1.1
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.1 7.2 0.8
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.9 1.8 1.7
15 Caleb Martin DAL 7.3 3.7 2.6
16 Ryan Nembhard DAL 7.2 2.0 4.2
17 Sion James CHA 6.1 3.2 2.4
18 Dwight Powell DAL 5.9 6.1 1.6
19 Josh Green CHA 5.7 2.6 1.2
20 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.2 4.2 1.0
21 Tre Mann CHA 4.5 1.3 1.0
22 D'Angelo Russell DAL 3.8 1.0 1.7
23 Liam McNeeley CHA 3.6 1.7 0.8
24 Miles Kelly DAL 3.6 1.6 0.7
25 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.3 5.5 0.3
26 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.0 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.