NBA games

HOU @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
104–86
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU23203526104
ATL2319242086

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home ATL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 34 31 5 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 14 8 3
Reed Sheppard 26 13 4 4
Josh Okogie S 34 10 10 1
Clint Capela 18 10 7 2
Alperen Sengun S 28 9 13 4
Amen Thompson S 35 9 7 5
Jae'Sean Tate 19 4 3 0
Aaron Holiday 8 4 2 0
Jeff Green 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum 31 23 5 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 35 20 5 1
Corey Kispert S 31 17 2 2
Vit Krejci S 27 9 4 1
Christian Koloko S 26 6 7 2
Asa Newell 20 5 7 0
Dyson Daniels S 31 4 6 7
Mouhamed Gueye 21 2 3 2
Luke Kennard 16 0 7 1
Keaton Wallace 2 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Corey Kispert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Corey Kispert makes driving layup (Christian Koloko assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
15%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
13%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
9 Corey Kispert ATL
8%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
44%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 25.9 5.9 5.2
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.3 10.3 6.5
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.2 10.1 6.4
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.5 3.8 4.5
5 Amen Thompson HOU 18.9 8.0 6.2
6 CJ McCollum ATL 18.8 4.0 4.2
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.8 6.8 1.8
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.8 7.3 6.9
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 10.2 2.6 1.9
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.4 3.5 1.2
11 Luke Kennard ATL 8.7 2.4 1.7
12 Corey Kispert ATL 8.3 2.1 1.5
13 Josh Okogie HOU 5.5 3.2 1.2
14 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.4 3.5 1.2
15 Vit Krejci ATL 5.0 1.8 1.0
16 Isaiah Crawford HOU 5.0 2.3 0.8
17 Christian Koloko ATL 4.7 3.8 0.9
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.3 1.4 1.0
19 Clint Capela HOU 3.4 4.2 0.6
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.1 1.9 0.6
21 Asa Newell ATL 3.1 1.4 0.6
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 2.7 1.2 0.9
23 Jeff Green HOU 1.9 0.7 0.4
24 JD Davison HOU 1.8 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.