NBA games

MIL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
99–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2320292799
WSH25322527109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home WSH
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 39 21 14 1
Kyle Kuzma S 35 19 9 6
Bobby Portis S 36 19 7 3
Ryan Rollins S 26 17 3 8
Pete Nance 20 13 6 1
Cole Anthony 18 5 2 1
Gary Trent Jr. 25 3 0 2
AJ Green S 37 2 2 3
Andre Jackson Jr. 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George S 36 23 5 5
Alex Sarr S 32 16 17 2
Bub Carrington 29 13 4 6
Khris Middleton S 26 13 6 4
Justin Champagnie 26 12 6 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 28 8 10 1
Tre Johnson S 11 8 0 2
Will Riley 18 6 1 0
Malaki Branham 14 6 3 0
Jamir Watkins 21 4 9 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · Layup (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Alex Sarr makes layup (Tre Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
17%
2 Kyshawn George WSH
12%
3 Khris Middleton WSH
10%
4 Myles Turner MIL
9%
5 Tre Johnson WSH
9%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
7 Bobby Portis MIL
9%
8 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
10 AJ Green MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
24%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyshawn George WSH 19.7 6.3 5.4
2 Alex Sarr WSH 18.6 7.4 2.8
3 Tre Johnson WSH 16.2 3.2 3.5
4 Ryan Rollins MIL 14.1 5.8 3.9
5 Bobby Portis MIL 13.7 6.9 2.5
6 Myles Turner MIL 13.3 5.0 1.9
7 Bub Carrington WSH 13.0 3.5 5.9
8 Khris Middleton WSH 11.9 3.8 3.3
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 11.5 4.1 2.5
10 AJ Green MIL 10.6 2.6 2.0
11 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.5 4.8 2.6
12 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.3 6.1 1.9
13 Will Riley WSH 7.2 2.4 1.4
14 Cole Anthony MIL 6.4 2.4 2.1
15 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.6 1.5 1.3
16 Malaki Branham WSH 4.9 1.8 1.2
17 Jamir Watkins WSH 4.9 3.6 1.1
18 Pete Nance MIL 3.9 2.1 0.8
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.7 1.5 0.8
20 Jericho Sims MIL 3.6 3.0 0.8
21 Amir Coffey MIL 3.5 1.5 0.6
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.0 1.6 0.6
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.9 1.6 0.6
24 AJ Johnson WSH 2.7 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.