NBA games

SAC @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
111–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC25293819111
PHI28322825113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home PHI
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 31 27 4 2
DeMar DeRozan S 38 25 4 8
Zach LaVine 29 17 1 3
Domantas Sabonis S 28 14 7 3
Keon Ellis 20 10 0 0
Precious Achiuwa S 34 8 13 3
Maxime Raynaud 19 8 7 0
Nique Clifford S 27 2 6 2
Dylan Cardwell 14 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 40 4 8
Joel Embiid S 36 37 5 8
Paul George S 36 15 2 5
VJ Edgecombe S 35 5 5 3
Dominick Barlow 21 5 1 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 37 4 3 0
Jared McCain 15 4 1 1
Justin Edwards 7 3 1 0
Andre Drummond 4 0 0 0
Adem Bona 8 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Precious Achiuwa · Layup (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Precious Achiuwa makes driving layup (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
4 Paul George PHI
9%
5 Joel Embiid PHI
9%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
7 Precious Achiuwa SAC
8%
8 Zach LaVine SAC
7%
9 VJ Edgecombe PHI
7%
10 Andre Drummond PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
30%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 29.3 9.0 4.6
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.5 3.8 6.6
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.8 3.6 4.5
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.3 10.0 5.1
5 Zach LaVine SAC 17.7 2.9 2.7
6 Paul George PHI 16.8 4.9 4.4
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.7 4.2 1.9
8 VJ Edgecombe PHI 14.7 4.8 4.1
9 Dennis Schroder SAC 12.4 2.6 4.9
10 Precious Achiuwa SAC 10.6 6.8 1.6
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.4 3.6 2.6
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 6.7 4.0 1.1
13 Maxime Raynaud SAC 6.6 5.4 1.2
14 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.4 8.8 1.4
15 Nique Clifford SAC 6.4 3.5 1.3
16 Keon Ellis SAC 6.1 2.1 0.9
17 Jared McCain PHI 5.7 1.5 1.2
18 Andre Drummond PHI 5.4 6.1 0.8
19 Adem Bona PHI 5.4 4.3 0.7
20 Eric Gordon PHI 5.0 1.1 0.7
21 Dario Saric SAC 4.5 1.7 0.7
22 Jabari Walker PHI 4.1 2.4 0.7
23 Justin Edwards PHI 4.1 1.6 0.8
24 Trendon Watford PHI 3.2 2.0 1.1
25 Devin Carter SAC 3.1 1.3 0.9
26 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.7 1.5 0.3
27 Doug McDermott SAC 2.6 0.6 0.4
28 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.5 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.