NBA games

SA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
111–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA26283027111
HOU3626241399

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home HOU
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 29 28 16 3
De'Aaron Fox S 34 18 5 8
Keldon Johnson 27 17 7 5
Dylan Harper 22 16 4 3
Stephon Castle S 33 16 5 6
Harrison Barnes S 29 9 1 1
Devin Vassell 23 5 1 0
Julian Champagnie S 21 2 3 0
Carter Bryant 3 0 0 0
Luke Kornet 19 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 36 25 7 4
Kevin Durant S 36 24 2 6
Alperen Sengun S 36 18 10 7
Tari Eason S 25 10 6 0
Reed Sheppard 26 9 5 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 8 7 2
Clint Capela 9 5 4 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 19 0 2 0
Jae'Sean Tate 1 0 0 0
Aaron Holiday 1 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 15-foot jumper (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
7 Stephon Castle SA
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
9 Tari Eason HOU
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
31%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.1 6.8 5.0
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 21.6 9.8 2.0
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.5 9.2 5.6
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.5 4.6 6.1
5 Amen Thompson HOU 18.9 7.8 5.9
6 Stephon Castle SA 14.7 4.3 6.4
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.5 6.9 1.7
8 Keldon Johnson SA 13.9 4.3 1.6
9 Julian Champagnie SA 12.7 6.6 1.9
10 Tari Eason HOU 12.6 7.7 1.9
11 Devin Vassell SA 12.3 4.2 2.0
12 Reed Sheppard HOU 10.5 2.3 2.3
13 Dylan Harper SA 7.1 3.3 2.6
14 Harrison Barnes SA 7.0 2.0 2.2
15 Luke Kornet SA 6.5 7.0 1.3
16 Josh Okogie HOU 5.6 3.0 1.1
17 Isaiah Crawford HOU 4.8 2.3 0.8
18 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.4 2.7 0.8
19 Clint Capela HOU 3.7 4.1 0.7
20 Carter Bryant SA 3.3 2.0 0.5
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.9 1.8 0.6
22 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.2 1.2 0.6
23 Lindy Waters III SA 1.9 0.7 0.4
24 Jeff Green HOU 1.7 0.7 0.3
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.5 0.8 0.4
26 Aaron Holiday HOU 1.5 0.6 0.7
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.