NBA games

GS @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
140–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS34343339140
UTAH24313831124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home UTAH
91% 9%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 28 27 1 2
Moses Moody S 26 26 5 0
Gui Santos 22 16 3 4
Buddy Hield 17 13 3 4
Will Richard 20 13 5 3
De'Anthony Melton 23 12 2 2
Brandin Podziemski S 28 11 8 7
Quinten Post 17 10 6 2
Al Horford S 24 9 5 8
Trayce Jackson-Davis 4 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh 26 22 0 3
Keyonte George S 33 19 7 7
Ace Bailey S 34 19 7 4
Lauri Markkanen S 33 18 3 2
Kyle Filipowski 17 12 4 3
Isaiah Collier 30 12 3 6
Jusuf Nurkic S 23 11 5 5
Kyle Anderson 22 6 5 6
Walter Clayton Jr. 7 3 1 2
Svi Mykhailiuk S 16 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keyonte George · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Keyonte George makes 4-foot dunk (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
2 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
9%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
4 Stephen Curry GS
8%
5 Ace Bailey UTAH
7%
6 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
8 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
6%
9 Draymond Green GS
6%
10 Pat Spencer GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
16%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.8 4.2 7.3
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.6 7.1 3.1
3 Keyonte George UTAH 24.5 3.4 6.2
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 19.7 11.2 7.3
5 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 19.0 4.0 2.1
6 De'Anthony Melton GS 16.7 3.6 3.0
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.9 4.8 4.4
8 Ace Bailey UTAH 13.4 4.3 2.1
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 12.9 3.4 6.5
10 Moses Moody GS 12.8 3.5 2.0
11 Draymond Green GS 11.3 5.3 5.8
12 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 10.1 6.6 2.3
13 Quinten Post GS 9.2 3.9 1.2
14 Al Horford GS 9.1 6.1 2.5
15 Buddy Hield GS 9.1 2.7 1.5
16 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.9 4.1 2.0
17 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 8.9 2.4 3.8
18 Kevin Love UTAH 7.8 7.2 1.9
19 Will Richard GS 7.8 2.6 2.4
20 Kyle Anderson UTAH 7.6 3.8 2.3
21 Gui Santos GS 7.6 3.8 1.9
22 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.4 2.4 1.8
23 Gary Payton II GS 7.2 3.4 1.3
24 Malevy Leons GS 7.2 4.1 1.1
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.4 2.5 1.1
26 Pat Spencer GS 5.0 2.1 2.8
27 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 4.5 2.6 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.