NBA games

MIN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
118–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN31273426118
DAL29192730105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DAL
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 34 31 5 4
Naz Reid 28 23 8 3
Anthony Edwards S 38 20 6 6
Joan Beringer 16 9 4 1
Jaden McDaniels S 30 8 2 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 28 8 5 1
Bones Hyland 12 7 4 2
Mike Conley 23 6 1 5
Rudy Gobert S 21 6 6 1
Jaylen Clark 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 34 21 7 2
Naji Marshall S 32 18 6 1
Brandon Williams 24 17 5 3
Daniel Gafford S 21 14 6 0
Jaden Hardy 24 11 2 3
Max Christie S 32 9 4 1
Ryan Nembhard 10 6 1 2
Dwight Powell 27 5 9 4
Caleb Martin S 32 4 8 5
Miles Kelly 4 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 17-foot step back jumpshot (Jaden McDaniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Naji Marshall DAL
11%
6 Dwight Powell DAL
9%
7 Max Christie DAL
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
10 Caleb Martin DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
18%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.6 5.7 4.5
2 Julius Randle MIN 24.0 6.6 4.6
3 Naji Marshall DAL 21.7 6.0 5.0
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN 17.0 5.0 3.3
5 Max Christie DAL 16.8 3.8 2.7
6 Brandon Williams DAL 16.3 4.4 3.1
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 16.2 4.7 5.3
8 Naz Reid MIN 14.7 6.5 2.9
9 Klay Thompson DAL 12.2 2.8 2.1
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.4 11.1 1.4
11 P.J. Washington DAL 9.8 6.0 1.3
12 Bones Hyland MIN 7.9 1.9 2.8
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 6.7 7.2 0.7
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.2 1.4 1.2
15 Caleb Martin DAL 6.1 3.1 2.3
16 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.0 2.0 4.4
17 Dwight Powell DAL 5.0 6.1 1.2
18 Mike Conley MIN 4.8 1.9 1.9
19 Joan Beringer MIN 4.3 3.1 0.6
20 D'Angelo Russell DAL 4.1 1.1 1.8
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.7 2.2 0.9
22 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.7 1.6 1.1
23 Leonard Miller MIN 2.9 1.5 0.4
24 Miles Kelly DAL 2.8 1.0 0.7
25 Joe Ingles MIN 2.7 1.1 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.