NBA games

CHA @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
112–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA36262822112
MEM2827202297

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MEM
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 30 26 1 3
Miles Bridges S 28 20 6 3
Moussa Diabate S 33 18 19 2
LaMelo Ball S 23 16 1 4
Kon Knueppel S 26 10 1 6
Collin Sexton 17 6 4 4
Ryan Kalkbrenner 15 6 4 0
Sion James 22 5 2 2
Tre Mann 3 3 0 0
Grant Williams 20 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 26 4 4
Cedric Coward S 27 17 2 5
GG Jackson 24 12 4 1
Vince Williams Jr. 20 10 5 4
Jock Landale S 26 10 3 0
John Konchar 25 8 6 3
Jaylen Wells S 25 6 2 0
Cam Spencer S 28 4 0 6
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 11 4 1 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 21 0 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cedric Coward MEM
11%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Kon Knueppel CHA
10%
5 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
6 Jock Landale MEM
9%
7 Ty Jerome MEM
9%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
32%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 21.4 5.0 4.4
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.8 6.3 2.1
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.2 4.4 6.9
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 17.0 6.3 3.9
5 Cedric Coward MEM 15.7 6.7 2.9
6 Jock Landale MEM 13.7 7.9 1.8
7 Miles Bridges CHA 13.4 4.7 2.8
8 Collin Sexton CHA 12.9 2.3 3.2
9 Cam Spencer MEM 12.7 3.8 7.6
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.5 3.3 1.5
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.0 8.4 1.4
12 GG Jackson MEM 9.8 3.4 1.2
13 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.5 6.0 1.2
14 Ty Jerome MEM 8.4 2.1 2.7
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.0 3.2 3.3
16 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 7.0 2.6 1.6
17 Sion James CHA 6.0 3.3 2.4
18 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.7 4.3 1.1
19 Grant Williams CHA 5.6 3.1 1.0
20 Josh Green CHA 5.6 2.5 1.2
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 5.3 2.0 1.0
22 Tre Mann CHA 4.9 1.6 1.3
23 John Konchar MEM 4.4 2.9 1.2
24 Liam McNeeley CHA 2.8 1.3 0.7
25 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.4 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.