NBA games

NY @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
11992
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY18293537119
TOR2823192292

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home TOR
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 36 30 1 4
OG Anunoby S 34 26 3 5
Josh Hart S 35 22 5 6
Jalen Brunson S 30 13 1 4
Landry Shamet 21 9 4 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 8 22 2
Tyler Kolek 20 5 1 10
Guerschon Yabusele 7 4 5 0
Ariel Hukporti 8 2 5 0
Jordan Clarkson 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 34 27 6 2
Scottie Barnes S 32 17 10 5
RJ Barrett S 24 14 8 3
Gradey Dick 16 11 3 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 25 9 4 1
Immanuel Quickley S 30 7 4 3
Collin Murray-Boyles S 28 4 5 4
Jamal Shead 23 3 2 1
Jamison Battle 2 0 0 0
Jonathan Mogbo 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Murray-Boyles · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Collin Murray-Boyles makes running layup (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
3 OG Anunoby NY
10%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
7 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
9%
8 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
10 Josh Hart NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
44%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 23.9 3.7 5.4
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.7 7.4 6.1
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR 20.1 4.6 5.7
4 Brandon Ingram TOR 19.4 5.7 4.1
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.9 10.1 3.4
6 OG Anunoby NY 18.9 5.4 2.9
7 RJ Barrett TOR 18.2 5.4 3.4
8 Mikal Bridges NY 14.8 4.5 3.2
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 13.0 5.2 2.3
10 Josh Hart NY 12.3 7.3 4.9
11 Jamal Shead TOR 10.7 2.4 5.5
12 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 9.1 7.3 2.6
13 Landry Shamet NY 8.8 2.0 1.6
14 Gradey Dick TOR 8.2 2.8 1.1
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.7 2.4 1.2
16 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.3 2.6 1.0
17 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.2 1.4 0.7
18 Tyler Kolek NY 3.6 1.6 1.4
19 Jamison Battle TOR 2.7 1.3 0.4
20 Guerschon Yabusele NY 2.4 1.6 0.5
21 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.1 3.2 0.3
22 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.8 1.7 0.4
23 Garrett Temple TOR 1.1 0.5 0.4
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.1 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.