NBA games

ORL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
133–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL34254034133
MIA27412036124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIA
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 31 12 4
Anthony Black S 37 26 7 5
Desmond Bane S 37 23 1 5
Jalen Suggs S 29 16 5 4
Tristan da Silva 21 12 2 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 10 5 1
Tyus Jones 19 5 1 9
Jonathan Isaac 17 4 5 3
Noah Penda 8 3 3 1
Moritz Wagner 4 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Simone Fontecchio 20 23 5 2
Norman Powell S 28 22 2 1
Bam Adebayo S 39 21 12 7
Andrew Wiggins S 32 16 5 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 13 4 4
Dru Smith 22 13 3 7
Pelle Larsson S 28 8 9 2
Kel'el Ware 7 4 4 0
Nikola Jovic 19 2 2 0
Kasparas Jakucionis S 20 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
10%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
9%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Anthony Black ORL
8%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
10 Pelle Larsson MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
22%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 26.3 9.4 5.9
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.2 9.6 3.7
3 Tyler Herro MIA 21.5 4.1 3.3
4 Desmond Bane ORL 21.3 4.6 4.2
5 Norman Powell MIA 20.1 4.2 3.3
6 Anthony Black ORL 18.6 4.4 6.1
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 17.5 3.8 5.3
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA 17.1 5.8 3.3
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.9 5.1 4.9
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.3 7.1 2.7
11 Pelle Larsson MIA 11.6 3.9 3.1
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.8 2.7 5.9
13 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.3 3.0 1.0
14 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.2 2.4 1.4
15 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.7 3.7 1.3
16 Kel'el Ware MIA 7.7 6.1 0.9
17 Noah Penda ORL 7.5 4.3 1.6
18 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.2 3.2 1.4
19 Jase Richardson ORL 6.6 1.9 1.4
20 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.7 2.5 2.5
21 Dru Smith MIA 5.6 2.6 1.8
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.6 5.3 0.7
23 Myron Gardner MIA 4.3 2.7 1.1
24 Tyus Jones ORL 4.1 1.7 2.1
25 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.3 2.4 0.9
26 Jett Howard ORL 3.0 1.3 0.8
27 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.6 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.