NBA games

ATL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
117–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL38222730117
BOS18283030106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home BOS
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 31 21 1 3
Jalen Johnson S 33 19 14 7
Onyeka Okongwu S 29 17 6 3
Dyson Daniels S 35 15 6 9
Corey Kispert S 20 13 2 1
CJ McCollum 29 13 3 3
Luke Kennard 24 9 0 0
Mouhamed Gueye 19 5 4 2
Vit Krejci 6 5 0 0
Keaton Wallace 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 29 21 7 3
Payton Pritchard S 28 12 4 0
Anfernee Simons 19 12 1 1
Sam Hauser S 25 12 7 1
Luka Garza 24 11 6 6
Derrick White S 31 11 4 3
Hugo Gonzalez 27 10 5 0
Baylor Scheierman 17 6 3 4
Josh Minott 5 5 1 0
Jordan Walsh 21 4 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 13-foot jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
17%
2 Derrick White BOS
11%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 Payton Pritchard BOS
10%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
9 Corey Kispert ATL
7%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
49%
Jumper
14%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 28.2 8.1 5.5
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.6 10.6 6.5
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.6 4.2 4.7
4 CJ McCollum ATL 19.3 4.0 4.1
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.3 8.2 4.0
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.1 4.2 5.8
7 Derrick White BOS 16.4 5.8 5.8
8 Anfernee Simons BOS 15.8 3.4 3.1
9 Sam Hauser BOS 14.1 4.8 2.4
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.1 7.4 6.0
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.2 3.5 1.2
12 Luke Kennard ATL 8.4 2.3 1.9
13 Luka Garza BOS 8.0 4.3 1.2
14 Corey Kispert ATL 7.8 1.9 1.5
15 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.3 3.2 1.2
16 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.1 4.1 1.4
17 Vit Krejci ATL 4.8 1.9 1.1
18 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.7 3.1 0.9
19 Christian Koloko ATL 4.4 3.7 0.8
20 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.3 2.9 0.8
21 Chris Boucher BOS 4.1 3.2 0.7
22 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.0 1.3 1.0
23 Josh Minott BOS 3.6 1.7 0.7
24 Amari Williams BOS 3.1 2.7 0.6
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.7 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.