NBA games

CHI @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
110–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI33203225110
IND24252737113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home IND
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 30 25 9 4
Matas Buzelis S 32 20 8 0
Ayo Dosunmu 29 19 4 4
Coby White S 32 14 2 4
Jalen Smith 28 13 11 3
Josh Giddey S 29 10 4 7
Isaac Okoro S 23 5 2 0
Kevin Huerter 17 4 4 4
Julian Phillips 2 0 0 0
Patrick Williams 17 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 20 3 5
Andrew Nembhard S 34 18 6 9
Jarace Walker S 22 16 0 0
Bennedict Mathurin 28 15 8 1
Aaron Nesmith S 34 14 4 4
Jay Huff 23 10 7 1
T.J. McConnell 16 8 4 6
Micah Potter 17 7 3 1
Ben Sheppard 6 3 1 1
Johnny Furphy S 22 2 7 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Matas Buzelis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Matas Buzelis makes tip in dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
16%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
5 Jarace Walker IND
9%
6 Jalen Smith CHI
8%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Johnny Furphy IND
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
46%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.1 7.5 5.2
2 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.1 3.9 9.1
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.5 9.3 4.5
4 Coby White CHI 19.1 4.1 4.9
5 Josh Giddey CHI 18.7 7.2 8.0
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.5 3.2 3.4
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 15.8 4.9 3.1
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.7 4.8 2.3
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.5 5.4 2.9
10 Jalen Smith CHI 11.9 8.2 1.4
11 Jarace Walker IND 11.6 4.2 2.4
12 T.J. McConnell IND 9.4 2.2 4.9
13 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.3 3.3 1.7
14 Kevin Huerter CHI 8.8 3.2 2.9
15 Jay Huff IND 8.1 3.9 1.1
16 Johnny Furphy IND 7.8 5.8 1.7
17 Quenton Jackson IND 5.9 1.8 1.5
18 Patrick Williams CHI 5.8 2.6 1.0
19 Micah Potter IND 5.7 3.3 1.0
20 Ben Sheppard IND 5.3 1.6 1.4
21 Jevon Carter CHI 4.5 1.4 0.7
22 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.3 5.1 0.8
23 Dalen Terry CHI 4.0 2.0 0.7
24 Ethan Thompson IND 3.6 1.6 1.0
25 Julian Phillips CHI 3.4 1.5 0.6
26 Tony Bradley IND 3.3 3.0 0.5
27 Kam Jones IND 2.5 1.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.