NBA games

LAL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
99–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2827222299
CLE24334230129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home CLE
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 30 29 5 6
LeBron James S 27 11 3 5
Gabe Vincent 25 11 3 1
Deandre Ayton S 19 10 4 2
Bronny James 8 8 2 1
Jaxson Hayes 18 7 5 1
Jake LaRavia S 27 6 0 3
Drew Timme 12 6 2 0
Dalton Knecht 8 5 1 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 16 4 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 29 25 5 5
Jaylon Tyson S 29 20 6 6
De'Andre Hunter 21 19 3 1
Jarrett Allen S 24 17 9 2
Dean Wade S 18 11 5 2
Thomas Bryant 16 10 4 1
Tyrese Proctor 11 8 0 3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 29 8 4 3
Craig Porter Jr. 15 7 1 3
Sam Merrill S 24 4 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
14%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
6 Maxi Kleber LAL
9%
7 Jake LaRavia LAL
8%
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE
8%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
59%
Jumper
13%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 30.2 7.3 8.8
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.4 4.8 7.2
3 LeBron James LAL 25.3 7.2 6.7
4 Jaylon Tyson CLE 18.3 5.7 3.7
5 Marcus Smart LAL 12.2 3.5 2.4
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.6 7.3 1.6
7 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.2 4.0 2.1
8 Sam Merrill CLE 11.0 2.7 1.7
9 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.5 8.5 0.9
10 Jake LaRavia LAL 10.2 3.8 2.4
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.1 3.2 1.3
12 Dean Wade CLE 6.7 4.1 1.5
13 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 6.4 3.3 1.6
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.1 4.1 0.8
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.9 4.3 1.3
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.8 3.1 3.7
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.1 1.5 1.1
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.7 1.3 1.0
19 Lonzo Ball CLE 4.5 2.4 2.1
20 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.2 2.2 0.7
21 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.5 1.8 0.8
22 Drew Timme LAL 3.4 1.5 1.0
23 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.3 0.8 0.4
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.0 1.5 0.5
25 Bronny James LAL 1.5 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.