NBA games

BKN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
102–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN29222427102
PHX28322224106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home PHX
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 36 5 3
Egor Demin S 31 15 5 3
Ziaire Williams 28 11 1 5
Cam Thomas 25 11 3 3
Nic Claxton S 29 8 5 8
Terance Mann S 30 7 3 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 7 7 2
Danny Wolf 14 4 5 0
Ben Saraf 19 3 1 2
Drake Powell S 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mark Williams S 30 27 6 1
Dillon Brooks S 34 26 3 3
Grayson Allen S 34 18 3 6
Jamaree Bouyea 25 10 3 1
Ryan Dunn 21 9 2 2
Royce O'Neale S 34 7 2 4
Jordan Goodwin S 29 4 9 3
Oso Ighodaro 18 3 2 1
Nigel Hayes-Davis 7 1 1 0
Rasheer Fleming 8 1 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Mark Williams makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
18%
2 Mark Williams PHX
13%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
13%
4 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
5 Grayson Allen PHX
10%
6 Terance Mann BKN
8%
7 Drake Powell BKN
8%
8 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
9 Egor Demin BKN
8%
10 Ziaire Williams BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
24%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 23.2 6.6 3.6
2 Grayson Allen PHX 17.9 4.1 3.2
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 17.7 4.6 2.4
4 Egor Demin BKN 11.4 2.6 3.2
5 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.3 4.5 4.0
6 Mark Williams PHX 11.2 8.6 1.3
7 Nic Claxton BKN 11.0 7.3 3.0
8 Cam Thomas BKN 11.0 2.4 3.4
9 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.6 2.9 1.1
10 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.0 7.5 1.9
11 Nolan Traore BKN 9.0 1.9 3.2
12 Danny Wolf BKN 8.1 4.8 1.4
13 Terance Mann BKN 7.2 3.1 3.1
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.0 5.1 2.6
15 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 6.9 3.1 1.5
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.7 4.1 1.8
17 Ben Saraf BKN 6.6 1.8 2.4
18 Drake Powell BKN 6.6 2.0 1.6
19 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.4 2.8 1.4
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.3 1.9 0.7
21 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.2 2.0 0.7
22 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.7 1.5 0.6
23 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.4 2.0 0.6
24 Nick Richards PHX 2.0 2.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.