NBA games

DET @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
109–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET31213027109
DEN18282635107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home DEN
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 31 22 8 3
Cade Cunningham S 36 22 3 11
Jalen Duren S 30 14 8 0
Ausar Thompson S 20 14 4 1
Ronald Holland II 23 10 3 0
Javonte Green 19 10 6 1
Jaden Ivey 18 8 3 2
Isaiah Stewart 20 7 2 0
Duncan Robinson S 23 2 3 3
Daniss Jenkins 19 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 39 24 5 10
Jonas Valanciunas S 31 16 16 1
Bruce Brown 23 16 7 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 32 14 4 3
Peyton Watson S 37 13 3 3
Spencer Jones S 33 12 3 1
Jalen Pickett S 16 4 3 1
Julian Strawther 12 4 2 0
Zeke Nnaji 17 4 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
2 Jalen Duren DET
10%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
4 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
6 Jonas Valanciunas DEN
8%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
8 Zeke Nnaji DEN
7%
9 Tobias Harris DET
7%
10 Julian Strawther DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
77%
Jumper
8%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 28.3 4.2 8.1
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.0 5.2 9.6
3 Peyton Watson DEN 23.8 6.5 3.6
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.5 6.1 3.9
5 Jalen Duren DET 15.6 9.4 1.8
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.4 2.8 1.7
7 Tobias Harris DET 12.9 3.6 2.4
8 Duncan Robinson DET 12.5 2.7 1.6
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.8 6.2 1.5
10 Jalen Pickett DEN 10.3 4.4 4.3
11 Ausar Thompson DET 9.5 6.6 2.8
12 Ronald Holland II DET 9.2 5.5 1.5
13 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.9 2.1 4.4
14 Jaden Ivey DET 8.5 2.6 1.4
15 Javonte Green DET 7.9 2.9 1.0
16 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.5 4.8 1.0
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 7.2 4.9 1.3
18 Spencer Jones DEN 7.2 3.7 1.0
19 Bruce Brown DEN 6.7 3.3 2.0
20 Paul Reed DET 5.4 4.6 1.6
21 Marcus Sasser DET 5.2 1.4 1.5
22 DaRon Holmes II DEN 5.2 2.2 1.3
23 Julian Strawther DEN 5.1 1.4 1.2
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.0 1.6 1.0
25 Chaz Lanier DET 3.8 1.4 0.8
26 Bobi Klintman DET 3.7 2.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.