NBA games

NO @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
95104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO1432232695
OKC17313125104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home OKC
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 34 21 11 2
Saddiq Bey S 33 16 13 5
Trey Murphy III S 39 10 5 5
Yves Missi 21 9 6 2
Herbert Jones S 27 9 5 5
Derik Queen S 26 9 7 1
Jose Alvarado 20 8 3 4
Jeremiah Fears 18 7 2 1
Karlo Matkovic 10 6 2 0
Micah Peavy 12 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 29 6 4
Chet Holmgren S 33 20 14 3
Isaiah Joe 24 17 3 3
Aaron Wiggins S 34 13 5 1
Luguentz Dort S 34 12 8 3
Jaylin Williams S 27 4 10 5
Ousmane Dieng 19 4 4 2
Kenrich Williams 21 3 2 4
Branden Carlson 6 2 0 0
Brooks Barnhizer 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derik Queen · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Derik Queen makes 15-foot jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
16%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
4 Derik Queen NO
11%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
6 Saddiq Bey NO
11%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Jaylin Williams OKC
8%
10 Jordan Poole NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
18%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.6 3.9 6.3
2 Trey Murphy III NO 24.9 5.4 4.9
3 Zion Williamson NO 21.8 7.6 4.2
4 Saddiq Bey NO 19.8 4.9 2.9
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.8 10.0 1.9
6 Jeremiah Fears NO 12.4 4.4 3.3
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.7 4.7 2.0
8 Derik Queen NO 10.5 8.4 5.1
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.1 4.3 1.7
10 Herbert Jones NO 9.5 4.0 2.2
11 Jordan Poole NO 8.9 1.9 2.0
12 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.3 3.7 1.4
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.8 2.3 1.3
14 Yves Missi NO 7.8 7.5 1.4
15 Jose Alvarado NO 6.7 2.8 3.0
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.3 4.0 2.4
17 Micah Peavy NO 6.2 2.8 1.6
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.6 1.7 1.4
19 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.2 3.2 0.8
20 Alex Caruso OKC 5.0 2.3 1.5
21 Branden Carlson OKC 4.6 3.0 0.6
22 Kevon Looney NO 3.2 5.3 0.9
23 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.8 1.7 0.5
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.7 1.6 0.7
25 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.