NBA games

MIL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
122–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL34283327122
PHI42293533139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home PHI
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 35 31 4 3
Ryan Rollins S 39 24 8 4
Bobby Portis S 36 17 12 8
Kyle Kuzma S 32 17 8 8
Gary Trent Jr. 21 13 0 0
Cole Anthony 14 10 1 1
AJ Green S 29 8 2 3
Pete Nance 2 2 0 0
Jericho Sims 11 0 1 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 33 32 5 5
Joel Embiid S 29 29 9 5
Tyrese Maxey S 36 22 3 9
Jared McCain 24 17 1 3
VJ Edgecombe S 31 12 8 7
Justin Edwards 24 8 3 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 23 7 4 0
Adem Bona 17 6 8 0
Dominick Barlow 12 4 4 2
Trendon Watford 6 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Joel Embiid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
16%
2 Paul George PHI
10%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
9%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
5 Myles Turner MIL
8%
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
7 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
9 Ryan Rollins MIL
7%
10 Gary Harris MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
41%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 29.1 9.0 5.1
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.9 3.6 6.3
3 Paul George PHI 15.4 5.3 4.0
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI 14.1 4.8 4.2
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 13.9 5.4 4.3
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.9 4.1 1.9
7 Bobby Portis MIL 12.3 6.3 2.0
8 Myles Turner MIL 11.9 5.4 1.7
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 11.4 3.8 1.8
10 AJ Green MIL 9.5 2.3 1.7
11 Dominick Barlow PHI 7.4 4.6 1.2
12 Andre Drummond PHI 5.9 6.2 0.9
13 Eric Gordon PHI 5.0 1.1 0.7
14 Jared McCain PHI 5.0 1.6 1.0
15 Adem Bona PHI 4.9 4.2 0.7
16 Cole Anthony MIL 4.8 2.1 2.0
17 Jabari Walker PHI 4.5 2.8 0.7
18 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 4.3 1.0 1.1
19 Gary Harris MIL 3.9 1.5 1.1
20 Justin Edwards PHI 3.9 1.7 0.8
21 Trendon Watford PHI 3.2 1.9 1.1
22 Johni Broome PHI 3.2 2.4 0.7
23 Jericho Sims MIL 3.1 2.8 0.5
24 Pete Nance MIL 3.1 1.7 0.7
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.0 1.1 0.7
26 Amir Coffey MIL 2.8 1.0 0.5
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 0.9 0.3
28 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.5 0.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.