NBA games

SAC @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
87–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2625211587
NY36162031103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home NY
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 39 34 5 0
Russell Westbrook S 33 14 4 5
Domantas Sabonis S 33 11 12 7
Nique Clifford S 30 7 3 1
Precious Achiuwa S 24 6 5 0
Maxime Raynaud 15 4 3 0
Dylan Cardwell 22 4 10 0
Dennis Schroder 23 4 1 4
Keon Ellis 22 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 28 3 4
Mikal Bridges S 38 18 3 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 27 17 11 4
OG Anunoby S 32 15 2 0
Miles McBride 30 9 2 4
Josh Hart S 31 7 9 4
Mitchell Robinson 27 7 13 0
Landry Shamet 17 2 1 3
Guerschon Yabusele 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
8 Russell Westbrook SAC
8%
9 Precious Achiuwa SAC
8%
10 Josh Hart NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
41%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.6 3.6 5.4
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.4 3.3 4.7
3 Russell Westbrook SAC 19.6 3.9 6.4
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.2 10.0 3.4
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.8 9.8 4.2
6 OG Anunoby NY 17.3 5.5 3.1
7 Miles McBride NY 14.6 3.0 3.6
8 Mikal Bridges NY 13.7 4.3 3.3
9 Dennis Schroder SAC 12.9 2.5 4.2
10 Josh Hart NY 12.3 7.6 5.6
11 Keegan Murray SAC 12.1 4.5 1.5
12 Landry Shamet NY 10.1 2.3 1.7
13 Precious Achiuwa SAC 9.1 5.9 1.5
14 Maxime Raynaud SAC 6.7 5.5 1.3
15 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.1 1.6 0.8
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.0 9.1 1.1
17 Keon Ellis SAC 5.8 1.8 0.8
18 Dylan Cardwell SAC 5.8 8.1 1.3
19 Nique Clifford SAC 5.8 2.9 1.2
20 Tyler Kolek NY 4.3 1.8 1.6
21 Dario Saric SAC 4.2 1.6 0.5
22 Devin Carter SAC 3.7 1.5 1.0
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.9 3.6 0.7
24 Guerschon Yabusele NY 2.7 1.8 0.7
25 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.3 1.1 0.2
26 Doug McDermott SAC 2.2 0.5 0.3
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.7 0.9 0.5
28 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.