NBA games

POR @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
111–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR28253424111
WSH26342629115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home WSH
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 35 31 4 2
Deni Avdija S 31 17 12 3
Toumani Camara S 33 16 9 4
Donovan Clingan S 30 14 20 2
Rayan Rupert 19 10 6 1
Jerami Grant 24 6 4 0
Caleb Love 17 6 2 1
Yang Hansen 12 6 5 1
Jrue Holiday S 25 5 7 5
Sidy Cissoko 15 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 36 29 12 3
Kyshawn George S 37 19 9 5
Khris Middleton S 27 19 6 5
Tre Johnson S 32 18 4 2
Bub Carrington 28 11 1 1
Will Riley 11 6 1 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 28 5 5 6
Malaki Branham 2 3 0 0
Jamir Watkins 12 2 2 1
Anthony Gill 6 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
3 Deni Avdija POR
8%
4 Toumani Camara POR
8%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
6 Tre Johnson WSH
8%
7 Jrue Holiday POR
6%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
6%
9 Khris Middleton WSH
6%
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
38%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 28.5 7.1 7.7
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.3 5.7 4.0
3 Jerami Grant POR 20.9 4.4 3.1
4 Alex Sarr WSH 18.2 6.5 2.4
5 Kyshawn George WSH 18.0 5.9 5.2
6 Caleb Love POR 16.9 3.7 4.4
7 Tre Johnson WSH 16.0 2.9 3.7
8 Toumani Camara POR 15.2 4.9 2.6
9 Jrue Holiday POR 14.1 3.9 5.9
10 Bub Carrington WSH 12.9 3.7 5.7
11 Donovan Clingan POR 12.8 10.7 2.3
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.7 4.2 2.0
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.7 6.0 1.9
14 Khris Middleton WSH 9.6 3.2 3.0
15 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.7 3.1 1.4
16 Kris Murray POR 7.4 2.9 1.4
17 Will Riley WSH 7.1 2.4 1.5
18 Robert Williams III POR 5.7 5.7 1.0
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.2 1.3 0.8
20 Rayan Rupert POR 5.2 2.3 1.2
21 Malaki Branham WSH 4.3 1.6 1.1
22 Jamir Watkins WSH 4.3 3.5 1.0
23 Javonte Cooke POR 3.3 1.5 0.9
24 Yang Hansen POR 2.9 1.6 0.9
25 AJ Johnson WSH 2.4 1.3 0.7
26 Duop Reath POR 2.2 1.7 0.5
27 Anthony Gill WSH 2.1 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.