NBA games

GS @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
83–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2018192683
MIN21322233108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIN
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quinten Post S 28 13 5 0
Brandin Podziemski S 28 12 7 4
Gui Santos S 26 11 10 2
Moses Moody S 26 10 4 1
Pat Spencer S 34 10 5 6
Trayce Jackson-Davis 20 8 4 1
Malevy Leons 9 6 5 1
Buddy Hield 29 5 2 3
Gary Payton II 12 4 1 0
Will Richard 28 4 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 23 18 7 2
Bones Hyland 25 17 7 5
Naz Reid 25 15 7 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 15 4 8
Rudy Gobert S 35 15 17 2
Jaden McDaniels S 30 14 3 3
Joan Beringer 10 6 4 0
Jaylen Clark 25 4 3 2
Johnny Juzang 5 2 1 0
Mike Conley S 21 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
21%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
21%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
18%
4 Brandin Podziemski GS
13%
5 Moses Moody GS
13%
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
13%
7 Gui Santos GS
0%
8 Quinten Post GS
0%
9 Pat Spencer GS
0%
10 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
27%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 23.9 6.7 5.2
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN 17.0 5.0 3.5
3 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 15.2 4.7 4.8
4 Naz Reid MIN 14.8 6.3 2.9
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.0 4.3 4.0
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.3 10.5 1.4
7 Moses Moody GS 10.2 3.0 1.6
8 Buddy Hield GS 7.6 2.3 1.0
9 Quinten Post GS 7.6 3.2 1.2
10 Bones Hyland MIN 6.9 1.8 2.8
11 Gary Payton II GS 6.1 3.2 1.1
12 Will Richard GS 5.5 1.9 1.7
13 Mike Conley MIN 5.2 1.9 2.1
14 Gui Santos GS 4.9 2.4 1.7
15 Malevy Leons GS 4.7 3.1 0.8
16 LJ Cryer GS 4.2 1.2 1.0
17 Joan Beringer MIN 4.1 3.2 0.6
18 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.9 1.7 1.3
19 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.6 2.3 0.7
20 Leonard Miller MIN 3.5 1.8 0.5
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.3 2.2 0.8
22 Pat Spencer GS 3.3 1.3 2.2
23 Joe Ingles MIN 2.7 1.2 1.0
24 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.2 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.