NBA games

MEM @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
99–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM2430232299
HOU23282532108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home HOU
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 17 7 1
Santi Aldama S 27 17 7 2
GG Jackson 27 14 3 1
Jaylen Wells S 26 12 6 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 18 11 3 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 11 8 3 0
Cedric Coward S 30 8 7 2
Vince Williams Jr. 21 7 8 5
Cam Spencer S 27 5 5 13
John Konchar 20 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 33 8 2
Alperen Sengun S 34 33 9 6
Tari Eason S 27 17 7 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 34 8 8 2
Amen Thompson S 42 8 8 14
Reed Sheppard 15 4 4 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 16 3 2 2
Josh Okogie 25 2 7 2
Jae'Sean Tate 4 0 1 1
Clint Capela 7 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tari Eason · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Tari Eason makes 24-foot running jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Kevin Durant HOU
15%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
6 Cedric Coward MEM
10%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
6%
10 Cam Spencer MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
34%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 27.1 6.3 5.1
2 Amen Thompson HOU 20.9 8.3 5.3
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.6 5.9 2.0
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.9 8.2 5.8
5 Cedric Coward MEM 15.9 6.7 2.9
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.4 6.6 1.7
7 Santi Aldama MEM 13.2 6.4 2.8
8 Tari Eason HOU 12.4 7.2 1.9
9 Cam Spencer MEM 12.0 3.4 7.3
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.2 2.2 2.4
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.1 2.9 1.5
12 GG Jackson MEM 9.4 3.3 1.2
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 7.3 2.7 1.7
14 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.0 2.9 2.8
15 Josh Okogie HOU 4.9 2.7 1.0
16 Javon Small MEM 3.9 1.4 2.4
17 John Konchar MEM 3.8 2.9 1.1
18 Clint Capela HOU 3.7 4.4 0.8
19 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 3.6 2.4 0.6
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.3 1.8 0.7
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.7 1.6 0.6
22 Jeff Green HOU 1.8 0.7 0.4
23 Aaron Holiday HOU 1.6 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.