NBA games

LAL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
129–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL35343525129
CHI31253329118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home CHI
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 46 7 12
LeBron James S 33 24 5 3
Rui Hachimura 29 23 2 1
Marcus Smart S 32 12 2 1
Jaxson Hayes 23 8 4 1
Jake LaRavia S 33 8 5 3
Deandre Ayton S 22 6 2 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 17 2 7 2
Gabe Vincent 12 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 31 23 5 6
Ayo Dosunmu 25 20 3 2
Josh Giddey 28 19 6 7
Nikola Vucevic S 36 18 11 5
Jalen Smith S 37 13 7 0
Matas Buzelis S 22 11 5 4
Isaac Okoro S 28 7 1 5
Patrick Williams 12 7 0 1
Dalen Terry 3 0 0 0
Julian Phillips 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"LeBron James makes 6-foot fade away jump shot (Jake LaRavia assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
14%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
8%
6 Maxi Kleber LAL
8%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Jalen Smith CHI
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
10 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
15%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.6 6.7 9.5
2 LeBron James LAL 25.4 7.2 7.3
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.4 9.8 4.7
4 Josh Giddey CHI 18.2 7.3 8.6
5 Coby White CHI 17.2 3.8 4.4
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.4 4.6 2.8
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.7 3.2 3.7
8 Jalen Smith CHI 11.9 8.5 1.4
9 Marcus Smart LAL 11.4 3.7 2.5
10 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.4 9.8 1.2
11 Jake LaRavia LAL 10.3 3.8 2.4
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.5 3.2 1.2
13 Kevin Huerter CHI 9.4 3.2 3.0
14 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.0 3.2 1.5
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.3 3.8 0.8
16 Patrick Williams CHI 6.2 2.6 1.1
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.8 3.7 1.3
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.4 1.4 1.0
19 Drew Timme LAL 3.9 1.7 1.1
20 Jevon Carter CHI 3.8 0.9 0.5
21 Dalen Terry CHI 3.0 1.4 0.6
22 Julian Phillips CHI 2.6 1.1 0.4
23 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.3 0.8 0.4
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.1 1.5 0.5
25 Bronny James LAL 1.5 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.