NBA games

POR @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
94–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR1126282994
BOS32202327102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home BOS
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant 27 19 2 3
Toumani Camara S 36 18 8 1
Jrue Holiday S 24 14 3 3
Caleb Love 26 11 3 5
Donovan Clingan S 28 9 15 1
Shaedon Sharpe S 34 9 5 3
Robert Williams III 20 6 2 0
Sidy Cissoko S 25 4 4 1
Rayan Rupert 16 4 4 0
Javonte Cooke 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard S 35 23 4 3
Jaylen Brown S 36 20 8 4
Derrick White S 34 18 4 4
Anfernee Simons 26 12 1 1
Sam Hauser S 30 11 7 3
Amari Williams 26 9 7 1
Neemias Queta S 22 4 4 6
Baylor Scheierman 13 2 5 0
Hugo Gonzalez 14 2 0 2
Jordan Walsh 3 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:22 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes 7-foot floating jump shot (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
3 Amari Williams BOS
10%
4 Deni Avdija POR
9%
5 Toumani Camara POR
9%
6 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
10 Kris Murray POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
61%
Jumper
20%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 28.0 7.9 5.6
2 Deni Avdija POR 27.1 6.9 7.7
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.7 5.4 4.2
4 Jerami Grant POR 19.8 4.3 3.2
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.1 4.3 5.8
6 Anfernee Simons BOS 16.0 3.4 3.1
7 Caleb Love POR 15.9 3.6 4.2
8 Derrick White BOS 15.5 5.7 5.6
9 Jrue Holiday POR 14.3 4.3 6.4
10 Sam Hauser BOS 14.0 4.3 2.4
11 Toumani Camara POR 13.9 4.5 2.5
12 Donovan Clingan POR 12.3 10.6 2.5
13 Neemias Queta BOS 10.8 8.9 1.4
14 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.7 2.7 1.3
15 Kris Murray POR 6.7 2.8 1.3
16 Robert Williams III POR 5.1 5.8 0.9
17 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.1 2.7 1.2
18 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.8 1.2 0.9
19 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.7 3.3 0.8
20 Rayan Rupert POR 4.7 1.9 1.3
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.3 2.8 0.9
22 Chris Boucher BOS 4.0 3.0 0.7
23 Josh Minott BOS 3.5 1.6 0.7
24 Yang Hansen POR 3.1 1.7 0.9
25 Javonte Cooke POR 3.0 1.3 0.8
26 Amari Williams BOS 2.5 1.9 0.7
27 Duop Reath POR 1.9 1.5 0.4
28 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.