NBA games

IND @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
116–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND38262824116
ATL34263537132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home ATL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 26 9 4
Aaron Nesmith S 29 18 2 4
Bennedict Mathurin 25 16 2 1
T.J. McConnell 18 16 1 3
Jarace Walker S 30 12 7 3
Andrew Nembhard S 30 6 5 13
Johnny Furphy S 18 6 5 1
Micah Potter 20 4 5 1
Isaiah Jackson 12 4 5 0
Jay Huff 3 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum 28 23 8 7
Dyson Daniels S 35 22 5 9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 21 3 3
Jalen Johnson S 35 15 7 6
Luke Kennard 23 13 2 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 31 12 10 2
Christian Koloko 17 12 4 1
Mouhamed Gueye 13 7 6 1
Corey Kispert S 17 7 0 3
Keaton Wallace 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Corey Kispert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Corey Kispert makes running layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
3 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
9 Jarace Walker IND
7%
10 Johnny Furphy IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
51%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.8 7.7 5.3
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.5 11.0 6.4
3 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.9 4.2 8.8
4 CJ McCollum ATL 19.2 4.0 3.9
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.1 4.4 4.7
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.0 7.7 4.2
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.0 4.6 2.1
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.5 5.8 3.4
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.3 7.6 6.0
10 Jarace Walker IND 11.1 3.9 2.3
11 Jay Huff IND 10.0 3.7 1.3
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.6 3.6 1.2
13 T.J. McConnell IND 9.2 2.7 5.3
14 Luke Kennard ATL 8.8 2.5 1.8
15 Corey Kispert ATL 8.6 2.3 1.5
16 Johnny Furphy IND 8.4 6.6 1.8
17 Micah Potter IND 6.6 3.6 1.1
18 Ben Sheppard IND 5.8 1.8 1.5
19 Vit Krejci ATL 5.7 2.2 1.3
20 Quenton Jackson IND 5.5 1.6 1.2
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.2 3.8 1.4
22 Christian Koloko ATL 4.5 4.1 0.9
23 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.4 5.6 0.8
24 Tony Bradley IND 3.5 3.3 0.5
25 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.3 0.9 0.9
26 Ethan Thompson IND 3.0 1.8 0.8
27 Kam Jones IND 2.0 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.