NBA games

PHI @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
93–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2222153493
CHA28414021130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CHA
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 25 17 2 0
Jared McCain 23 16 3 3
Quentin Grimes 26 14 3 5
Dominick Barlow S 25 9 3 1
VJ Edgecombe S 26 9 6 1
Jabari Walker 20 9 2 0
Tyrese Maxey S 25 6 2 7
Andre Drummond S 19 4 7 1
Justin Edwards 16 4 1 2
Trendon Watford 17 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 27 30 8 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner 26 13 9 3
Josh Green 21 12 2 4
Kon Knueppel S 20 12 8 6
Moussa Diabate S 20 12 5 0
LaMelo Ball S 20 11 2 8
Miles Bridges S 19 10 3 3
Collin Sexton 18 10 2 3
Grant Williams 17 9 5 0
Tidjane Salaun 12 7 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andre Drummond · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Andre Drummond makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
3 Kon Knueppel CHA
13%
4 Moussa Diabate CHA
11%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
7 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
9%
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
10 Dominick Barlow PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
24%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.9 3.6 6.3
2 Brandon Miller CHA 21.9 5.2 4.4
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.0 4.9 6.9
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 17.2 6.5 3.5
5 Miles Bridges CHA 14.8 4.8 3.0
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 14.3 4.7 4.5
7 Collin Sexton CHA 13.0 2.4 3.1
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.5 4.0 1.7
9 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.7 9.0 1.7
10 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.3 3.4 2.1
11 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.2 5.8 1.2
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 6.9 4.6 1.0
13 Sion James CHA 6.4 3.4 2.5
14 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.4 3.8 1.1
15 Grant Williams CHA 5.3 2.9 1.1
16 Josh Green CHA 5.2 2.5 1.0
17 Andre Drummond PHI 4.9 6.1 0.5
18 Adem Bona PHI 4.8 3.7 0.6
19 Eric Gordon PHI 4.7 0.9 0.6
20 Tre Mann CHA 3.7 1.4 1.1
21 Trendon Watford PHI 3.1 1.5 1.1
22 Jared McCain PHI 2.6 0.8 0.5
23 Jabari Walker PHI 2.5 2.2 0.3
24 Justin Edwards PHI 2.5 0.9 0.4
25 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.0 1.0 0.7
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.3 0.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.