NBA games

BKN @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
89–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN1423292389
LAC38302830126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home LAC
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Danny Wolf 26 14 7 4
Egor Demin S 29 12 2 5
Michael Porter Jr. S 22 9 2 4
Jalen Wilson 20 9 3 1
Terance Mann S 20 8 3 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 20 8 6 2
Ziaire Williams 21 7 3 0
Ben Saraf 17 6 0 0
Nic Claxton S 24 6 6 1
Drake Powell S 25 5 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 25 28 5 2
James Harden S 31 19 6 8
John Collins S 26 18 5 1
Jordan Miller 23 16 7 0
Ivica Zubac S 23 11 10 1
Kobe Sanders 30 9 4 2
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 7 8 1 0
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 7 4 2 0
Nicolas Batum 15 3 3 1
Brook Lopez 18 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 1-foot reverse layup (Egor Demin assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden LAC
16%
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
14%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
6 John Collins LAC
10%
7 Kris Dunn LAC
9%
8 Drake Powell BKN
8%
9 Egor Demin BKN
8%
10 Terance Mann BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
32%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 26.9 6.0 4.6
2 James Harden LAC 26.0 4.7 9.2
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 24.0 7.0 3.9
4 John Collins LAC 15.7 5.0 1.3
5 Jordan Miller LAC 13.8 3.9 2.6
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.7 10.8 2.1
7 Egor Demin BKN 11.7 2.9 3.2
8 Nic Claxton BKN 11.6 7.0 3.2
9 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.6 7.4 2.3
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.4 2.7 1.2
11 Kobe Sanders LAC 9.3 3.1 1.7
12 Kris Dunn LAC 8.8 3.1 3.8
13 Terance Mann BKN 7.4 2.9 3.1
14 Danny Wolf BKN 7.3 4.6 1.4
15 Drake Powell BKN 7.1 1.9 1.6
16 Ben Saraf BKN 6.3 1.8 3.0
17 Brook Lopez LAC 5.4 3.0 1.1
18 Tyrese Martin BKN 5.0 1.7 0.9
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.8 2.7 1.1
20 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.5 3.4 0.5
21 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.2 1.4 0.6
22 Patrick Baldwin Jr. LAC 2.9 1.6 1.0
23 Cam Christie LAC 2.9 1.3 0.5
24 Kobe Brown LAC 1.7 0.9 0.5
25 E.J. Liddell BKN 1.4 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.