MIA @ PHX
NBA
Mortgage Matchup Center
·Final
111–102
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 32 | 26 | 24 | 29 | 111 |
| PHX | 21 | 27 | 29 | 25 | 102 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA
away
home
PHX
23%
77%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo S | 32 | 22 | 7 | 1 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 36 | 20 | 5 | 6 |
| Norman Powell S | 31 | 16 | 10 | 1 |
| Nikola Jovic | 18 | 12 | 6 | 1 |
| Dru Smith | 23 | 11 | 2 | 0 |
| Andrew Wiggins S | 24 | 10 | 10 | 3 |
| Pelle Larsson S | 35 | 10 | 7 | 2 |
| Kasparas Jakucionis S | 23 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| Myron Gardner | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Simone Fontecchio | 15 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Bam Adebayo ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Bam Adebayo
MIA
14%
2
Andrew Wiggins
MIA
13%
3
Mark Williams
PHX
12%
4
Pelle Larsson
MIA
10%
5
Dillon Brooks
PHX
10%
6
Norman Powell
MIA
9%
7
Davion Mitchell
MIA
8%
8
Collin Gillespie
PHX
8%
9
Royce O'Neale
PHX
8%
10
Kasparas Jakucionis
MIA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
26%
Layup
24%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norman Powell | MIA | 20.6 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| 2 | Bam Adebayo | MIA | 20.2 | 9.7 | 3.6 |
| 3 | Dillon Brooks | PHX | 16.8 | 4.4 | 2.3 |
| 4 | Grayson Allen | PHX | 15.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| 5 | Andrew Wiggins | MIA | 15.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 |
| 6 | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | MIA | 13.1 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| 7 | Collin Gillespie | PHX | 12.4 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| 8 | Royce O'Neale | PHX | 11.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| 9 | Pelle Larsson | MIA | 11.0 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
| 10 | Mark Williams | PHX | 10.3 | 8.6 | 1.3 |
| 11 | Davion Mitchell | MIA | 9.8 | 3.0 | 5.8 |
| 12 | Jordan Goodwin | PHX | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 |
| 13 | Simone Fontecchio | MIA | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| 14 | Nikola Jovic | MIA | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 15 | Oso Ighodaro | PHX | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| 16 | Ryan Dunn | PHX | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 17 | Dru Smith | MIA | 5.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| 18 | Kasparas Jakucionis | MIA | 5.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| 19 | Jamaree Bouyea | PHX | 4.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 20 | Jahmir Young | MIA | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 21 | Myron Gardner | MIA | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 22 | Keshad Johnson | MIA | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 23 | Rasheer Fleming | PHX | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 24 | Isaiah Livers | PHX | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 25 | Nick Richards | PHX | 1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
| 26 | Nigel Hayes-Davis | PHX | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 27 | Khaman Maluach | PHX | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.