NBA games

NO @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
104–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO25312622104
SA2819212795

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home SA
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 33 24 10 4
Saddiq Bey S 33 24 10 4
Trey Murphy III S 38 17 6 9
Yves Missi 30 10 14 2
Herbert Jones S 28 9 3 2
Jeremiah Fears 16 8 3 0
Jose Alvarado 13 6 5 1
Derik Queen S 17 4 4 1
Karlo Matkovic 12 2 1 0
Micah Peavy 18 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 16 16 0
Keldon Johnson 28 15 2 1
Devin Vassell 25 13 1 1
Julian Champagnie S 29 13 4 1
De'Aaron Fox S 35 12 2 7
Carter Bryant 7 6 2 0
Dylan Harper 17 5 6 3
Stephon Castle S 29 5 4 5
Luke Kornet 20 5 8 1
Harrison Barnes S 19 5 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Saddiq Bey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Saddiq Bey makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Zion Williamson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
2 Stephon Castle SA
11%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
11%
4 Zion Williamson NO
11%
5 Derik Queen NO
10%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
7 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Devin Vassell SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
39%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 24.9 5.5 4.4
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.0 9.1 2.4
3 Zion Williamson NO 21.7 6.8 4.1
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.5 4.9 6.8
5 Saddiq Bey NO 17.2 4.1 2.4
6 Stephon Castle SA 17.2 4.8 7.0
7 Julian Champagnie SA 15.5 7.1 2.1
8 Keldon Johnson SA 14.8 4.6 1.7
9 Jeremiah Fears NO 12.3 4.4 3.4
10 Devin Vassell SA 12.1 3.9 2.3
11 Derik Queen NO 11.1 8.9 5.4
12 Herbert Jones NO 9.4 3.6 2.3
13 Luke Kornet SA 9.2 7.0 1.5
14 Jordan Poole NO 9.2 2.1 2.0
15 Dylan Harper SA 7.8 3.2 2.9
16 Harrison Barnes SA 7.5 2.1 2.2
17 Yves Missi NO 6.8 6.9 1.3
18 Micah Peavy NO 6.4 2.9 1.6
19 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.5 3.2 0.7
20 Jose Alvarado NO 5.1 2.1 2.5
21 Kevon Looney NO 3.6 5.4 1.1
22 Carter Bryant SA 3.6 2.2 0.7
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.3 1.7 1.0
24 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.9 1.8 0.5
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.6 1.3 0.8
26 Jeremy Sochan SA 2.6 1.4 0.8
27 Lindy Waters III SA 2.4 0.8 0.6
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.