NBA games

TOR @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
103–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR25292524103
OKC30203120101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home OKC
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 32 23 11 2
RJ Barrett S 21 14 6 2
Brandon Ingram S 36 13 5 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 32 10 5 3
Scottie Barnes S 32 10 11 8
Gradey Dick 21 10 3 1
Jamal Shead 24 9 4 5
Ja'Kobe Walter 28 9 3 2
Ochai Agbaji 15 5 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 24 3 6
Luguentz Dort S 36 19 8 2
Kenrich Williams 28 15 5 1
Chet Holmgren S 29 11 10 0
Aaron Wiggins 29 11 3 4
Isaiah Joe 22 10 1 2
Jaylin Williams S 21 5 3 1
Cason Wallace S 16 3 1 1
Ousmane Dieng 20 3 2 4
Brooks Barnhizer 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
8%
8 Isaiah Joe OKC
6%
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
6%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
75%
Jumper
10%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.7 4.2 6.0
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.8 7.8 6.5
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.0 6.3 4.0
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.0 4.3 6.5
5 RJ Barrett TOR 20.6 5.5 3.6
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.0 9.4 1.7
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 13.5 5.8 2.5
8 Jamal Shead TOR 10.8 2.6 6.0
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.5 4.1 1.4
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.2 4.4 1.5
11 Gradey Dick TOR 8.4 3.1 1.1
12 Kenrich Williams OKC 7.3 3.5 1.2
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.0 2.5 1.0
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.7 3.1 1.6
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.6 2.3 1.0
16 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.2 2.9 1.1
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.0 4.0 2.3
18 Alex Caruso OKC 5.0 2.3 1.4
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.0 1.7 1.0
20 Jamison Battle TOR 4.1 2.1 0.8
21 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.8 1.8 0.6
22 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.1 2.6 0.7
23 Alijah Martin TOR 2.8 1.4 0.6
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.4 1.6 0.6
25 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.2 0.9 0.5
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.7 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.