NBA games

DAL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Postponed
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Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIL
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Player MIN PTS REB AST

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
30%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
10%
3 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
4 Myles Turner MIL
9%
5 Dwight Powell DAL
8%
6 Max Christie DAL
7%
7 Gary Harris MIL
7%
8 Ryan Rollins MIL
7%
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL
7%
10 Caleb Martin DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
10%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 26.9 10.7 5.9
2 Naji Marshall DAL 21.8 6.1 5.1
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 18.0 6.6 5.1
4 Max Christie DAL 17.1 3.9 2.7
5 Brandon Williams DAL 16.5 4.6 3.1
6 Ryan Rollins MIL 14.2 5.3 4.3
7 Bobby Portis MIL 12.7 6.4 2.0
8 Klay Thompson DAL 12.7 2.9 2.2
9 Myles Turner MIL 12.2 5.5 1.7
10 Kyle Kuzma MIL 11.7 3.9 1.9
11 P.J. Washington DAL 10.4 6.0 1.4
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.4 7.4 0.9
13 Caleb Martin DAL 6.9 3.5 2.4
14 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.9 2.3 4.7
15 Dwight Powell DAL 5.8 6.8 1.4
16 Cole Anthony MIL 5.4 2.4 2.1
17 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl DAL 4.9 3.5 0.9
18 Gary Harris MIL 4.5 1.8 1.2
19 Pete Nance MIL 3.8 2.0 0.8
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.6 1.5 0.8
21 Amir Coffey MIL 3.4 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.