NBA games

DEN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Postponed
Tip-off

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MEM
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Player MIN PTS REB AST

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
2 Cedric Coward MEM
12%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
11%
5 Jock Landale MEM
11%
6 Zeke Nnaji DEN
10%
7 Julian Strawther DEN
9%
8 Jalen Pickett DEN
9%
9 Cam Spencer MEM
8%
10 Spencer Jones DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
19%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.0 6.1 2.2
2 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.5 6.3 4.1
3 Cedric Coward MEM 16.1 7.0 3.0
4 Jock Landale MEM 14.3 8.4 2.1
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.9 3.1 1.8
6 Cam Spencer MEM 12.5 3.6 7.1
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.6 3.2 1.6
8 Jalen Pickett DEN 10.5 4.6 4.6
9 GG Jackson MEM 10.0 3.7 1.3
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 8.1 3.0 1.8
11 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.8 3.1 2.9
12 Zeke Nnaji DEN 7.7 5.1 1.3
13 Spencer Jones DEN 7.7 4.1 1.1
14 Bruce Brown DEN 7.0 3.6 2.0
15 DaRon Holmes II DEN 5.8 2.6 1.4
16 Julian Strawther DEN 5.7 1.8 1.2
17 Javon Small MEM 4.8 1.8 2.6
18 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.7 2.0 1.1
19 John Konchar MEM 4.6 3.3 1.3
20 Curtis Jones DEN 3.7 1.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.