NBA games

SAC @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
116–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC35302823116
DET35433526139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DET
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 22 19 1 2
DeMar DeRozan S 19 16 0 4
Dennis Schroder 25 15 1 7
Nique Clifford S 33 15 3 1
Keon Ellis 21 14 0 0
Russell Westbrook S 22 13 2 4
Domantas Sabonis S 25 12 7 8
Precious Achiuwa S 17 4 4 1
Dylan Cardwell 27 4 9 5
Devin Carter 7 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 30 29 5 11
Jalen Duren S 24 18 6 1
Tobias Harris S 24 16 2 3
Duncan Robinson S 24 13 0 1
Daniss Jenkins 23 11 1 6
Ronald Holland II 21 11 4 2
Javonte Green 15 11 4 0
Jaden Ivey 17 11 2 0
Isaiah Stewart 24 8 8 0
Ausar Thompson S 20 5 5 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:50 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes 3-foot two point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
14%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
12%
5 Russell Westbrook SAC
10%
6 Tobias Harris DET
10%
7 Maxime Raynaud SAC
10%
8 Precious Achiuwa SAC
9%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
27%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.9 5.3 9.8
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.0 3.5 4.7
3 Russell Westbrook SAC 20.5 4.3 6.3
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.4 10.6 3.8
5 Jalen Duren DET 16.6 10.4 2.1
6 Tobias Harris DET 13.3 4.1 2.6
7 Malik Monk SAC 13.1 2.6 3.4
8 Dennis Schroder SAC 13.1 2.7 4.0
9 Duncan Robinson DET 12.4 3.0 1.8
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.1 5.2 1.6
11 Ausar Thompson DET 10.2 6.9 2.5
12 Precious Achiuwa SAC 9.7 7.0 1.4
13 Maxime Raynaud SAC 8.8 6.2 1.3
14 Jaden Ivey DET 8.7 2.7 1.6
15 Ronald Holland II DET 8.7 5.9 1.5
16 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.5 2.1 4.1
17 Javonte Green DET 8.4 2.9 1.1
18 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.3 8.5 1.1
19 Nique Clifford SAC 5.5 3.0 1.2
20 Marcus Sasser DET 5.0 1.7 1.7
21 Dario Saric SAC 4.4 1.7 0.6
22 Paul Reed DET 4.2 4.1 1.1
23 Bobi Klintman DET 4.1 2.5 1.0
24 Keon Ellis SAC 3.8 1.3 0.6
25 Chaz Lanier DET 3.3 1.1 0.7
26 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.4 1.3 0.3
27 Devin Carter SAC 2.3 1.1 0.8
28 Doug McDermott SAC 2.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.