NBA games

MIA @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
147–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA35383539147
UTAH34183727116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home UTAH
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 31 26 15 2
Nikola Jovic 25 23 3 1
Pelle Larsson S 25 20 2 3
Andrew Wiggins S 27 17 6 6
Simone Fontecchio 24 14 6 2
Norman Powell S 25 13 4 6
Kasparas Jakucionis S 17 12 5 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 9 7 5
Dru Smith 26 6 10 5
Keshad Johnson 3 5 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh 23 23 4 1
Keyonte George S 36 19 2 5
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 17 10 12
Isaiah Collier 28 16 6 9
Ace Bailey S 28 12 2 2
Kyle Filipowski 16 9 4 3
Svi Mykhailiuk S 17 8 3 1
Cody Williams S 30 5 1 1
Walter Clayton Jr. 15 5 1 2
Kyle Anderson 15 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes 8-foot two point shot (Ace Bailey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
12%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
4 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
5 Norman Powell MIA
9%
6 Ace Bailey UTAH
9%
7 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
8 Cody Williams UTAH
8%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
8%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
21%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 25.4 3.8 6.8
2 Norman Powell MIA 22.4 3.8 3.3
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.2 9.3 4.2
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 19.8 11.3 6.5
5 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 17.6 4.1 2.1
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.6 5.4 3.2
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.9 5.2 5.3
8 Ace Bailey UTAH 12.4 4.4 1.8
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 11.6 4.0 3.6
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH 11.0 2.9 5.9
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.7 3.3 6.5
12 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 10.0 2.7 4.0
13 Cody Williams UTAH 9.9 4.2 1.6
14 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 9.4 6.2 1.9
15 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.8 2.6 1.8
16 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.5 3.6 1.2
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.3 3.8 1.9
18 Kyle Anderson UTAH 6.6 3.8 1.9
19 Dru Smith MIA 5.5 2.6 1.9
20 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.5 2.5 2.7
21 Myron Gardner MIA 5.1 2.9 1.0
22 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.8 2.2 0.8
23 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.6 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.