NBA games

LAL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
116–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL37281437116
DAL28243523110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DAL
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 33 8 11
LeBron James S 37 17 8 5
Rui Hachimura 27 17 8 1
Jake LaRavia S 30 13 6 1
Marcus Smart S 32 13 7 3
Deandre Ayton S 24 9 11 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 12 8 4 2
Jaxson Hayes 15 6 1 1
Drew Timme 8 0 3 1
Gabe Vincent 15 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Max Christie S 35 24 2 3
Naji Marshall S 37 21 11 2
Brandon Williams 23 20 4 4
Caleb Martin S 24 17 3 1
Cooper Flagg S 34 16 7 6
Klay Thompson 14 6 3 1
Ryan Nembhard 4 2 0 2
Daniel Gafford 16 2 2 1
P.J. Washington 26 2 3 0
Dwight Powell S 24 0 7 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"LeBron James makes 9-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
10%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
10%
3 LeBron James LAL
10%
4 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
6 Maxi Kleber LAL
8%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
8 Dwight Powell DAL
7%
9 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
10 Max Christie DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
24%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.5 6.8 8.8
2 LeBron James LAL 26.6 7.6 7.7
3 Naji Marshall DAL 20.2 5.1 5.2
4 Cooper Flagg DAL 18.2 6.3 5.2
5 Max Christie DAL 17.5 3.9 2.9
6 Brandon Williams DAL 16.6 4.5 3.2
7 Klay Thompson DAL 13.1 2.8 2.1
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.1 9.5 1.2
9 Marcus Smart LAL 11.9 3.7 2.5
10 P.J. Washington DAL 11.8 6.3 1.6
11 Jake LaRavia LAL 9.9 3.8 2.0
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.0 3.2 1.3
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.3 1.5 1.2
14 Ryan Nembhard DAL 7.3 2.3 4.8
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.0 4.0 0.8
16 Daniel Gafford DAL 6.6 6.9 0.6
17 Dwight Powell DAL 6.0 6.5 1.2
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.9 4.1 1.3
19 Caleb Martin DAL 5.9 2.9 2.3
20 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.8 1.5 1.0
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl DAL 5.2 3.2 0.9
22 D'Angelo Russell DAL 4.4 1.1 1.7
23 Drew Timme LAL 4.2 1.7 1.0
24 Miles Kelly DAL 3.8 1.5 1.0
25 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.7 1.4 0.5
26 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.6 0.9 0.4
27 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.4 1.6 0.6
28 Bronny James LAL 1.8 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.