NBA games

BOS @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
111–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS28302726111
CHI30223626114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CHI
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 37 33 8 5
Anfernee Simons 28 21 4 5
Derrick White S 39 15 7 7
Payton Pritchard S 30 10 3 7
Sam Hauser S 24 8 4 3
Jordan Walsh 18 7 1 0
Neemias Queta 24 6 3 0
Luka Garza 14 4 2 1
Hugo Gonzalez 11 3 1 0
Amari Williams S 10 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 32 22 1 7
Nikola Vucevic S 35 16 7 6
Jalen Smith S 27 14 9 0
Matas Buzelis S 32 14 8 5
Kevin Huerter 24 12 6 3
Isaac Okoro S 27 12 2 1
Patrick Williams 16 10 1 0
Ayo Dosunmu 23 10 2 0
Josh Giddey 24 4 8 10

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Derrick White BOS
10%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
10%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Jalen Smith CHI
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
26%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.8 7.5 5.6
2 Josh Giddey CHI 20.1 7.1 8.8
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.0 10.1 5.1
4 Matas Buzelis CHI 17.4 4.6 2.9
5 Coby White CHI 16.5 4.0 4.3
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.3 4.3 5.7
7 Derrick White BOS 15.9 5.7 5.6
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.8 3.2 4.3
9 Anfernee Simons BOS 15.4 3.3 3.0
10 Sam Hauser BOS 12.1 4.2 2.1
11 Jalen Smith CHI 11.7 8.8 1.5
12 Neemias Queta BOS 11.2 10.2 1.4
13 Kevin Huerter CHI 9.6 3.7 3.2
14 Luka Garza BOS 8.5 4.4 1.1
15 Isaac Okoro CHI 7.9 3.2 1.6
16 Patrick Williams CHI 6.1 2.6 1.2
17 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.0 3.8 0.8
18 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.0 2.5 1.1
19 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.3 3.2 0.8
20 Chris Boucher BOS 4.0 3.0 0.6
21 Jevon Carter CHI 3.7 0.9 0.5
22 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.6 1.6 0.8
23 Dalen Terry CHI 2.9 1.5 0.6
24 Julian Phillips CHI 2.6 1.1 0.4
25 Amari Williams BOS 2.6 1.9 0.6
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.9 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.