NBA games

CLE @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
119–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE25302737119
ORL23252235105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ORL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 38 36 5 9
Jaylon Tyson S 32 17 5 4
Evan Mobley S 35 13 7 3
Tyrese Proctor 10 12 0 1
Dean Wade S 26 10 3 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 25 9 1 4
Jarrett Allen S 25 8 6 1
Lonzo Ball 25 6 8 2
Thomas Bryant 10 4 3 1
Craig Porter Jr. 15 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 27 5 2
Desmond Bane S 38 20 4 3
Anthony Black S 40 16 5 5
Moritz Wagner 13 13 6 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 30 11 5 3
Jalen Suggs S 24 9 1 6
Jase Richardson 15 4 1 2
Noah Penda 16 3 3 0
Goga Bitadze 5 2 6 0
Tristan da Silva 20 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
4 Anthony Black ORL
10%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE
9%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
33%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.7 5.2 6.7
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.1 9.5 6.7
3 Evan Mobley CLE 20.4 8.4 4.9
4 Desmond Bane ORL 20.3 4.7 4.9
5 Anthony Black ORL 18.6 4.2 6.4
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.5 3.4 5.0
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE 16.1 5.3 3.6
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.1 9.0 2.0
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.5 7.2 2.6
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.8 4.2 2.2
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.6 2.5 1.3
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.4 2.7 1.6
13 Dean Wade CLE 7.2 4.1 1.6
14 Jase Richardson ORL 7.2 2.0 1.6
15 Noah Penda ORL 7.1 3.9 1.6
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.9 3.9 4.1
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.6 5.7 1.1
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.9 3.8 1.3
19 Lonzo Ball CLE 4.3 2.1 2.4
20 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.3 2.2 0.7
21 Tyus Jones ORL 4.0 1.4 1.8
22 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.0 2.1 0.9
23 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.0 1.4 1.0
24 Jett Howard ORL 3.9 1.6 1.1
25 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.6 2.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.