NBA games

WSH @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
115–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH34242334115
CHA35312726119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CHA
8% 92%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Johnson S 37 26 0 6
Alex Sarr S 37 24 4 1
Justin Champagnie 32 15 11 3
Bub Carrington S 32 15 3 8
Jamir Watkins 29 11 6 3
Kyshawn George S 25 11 8 7
Will Riley S 23 7 0 2
Malaki Branham 8 3 2 2
Sharife Cooper 9 3 0 1
Anthony Gill 7 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 33 21 11 7
Miles Bridges S 29 20 3 4
LaMelo Ball S 32 20 2 11
Kon Knueppel S 32 16 4 3
Moussa Diabate S 32 11 14 0
Collin Sexton 16 9 1 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner 16 8 3 0
Josh Green 15 6 2 0
Sion James 16 6 5 2
Grant Williams 19 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 6-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
14%
2 Kon Knueppel CHA
12%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
4 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
5 Tre Johnson WSH
10%
6 Moussa Diabate CHA
10%
7 Bub Carrington WSH
9%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
9 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
31%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 23.1 4.8 4.2
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.1 4.9 6.4
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.7 6.7 3.9
4 Kyshawn George WSH 17.3 5.4 4.8
5 Alex Sarr WSH 15.9 6.1 2.4
6 Miles Bridges CHA 14.8 5.8 3.1
7 Collin Sexton CHA 14.1 2.5 3.2
8 Tre Johnson WSH 13.2 2.9 3.2
9 Bub Carrington WSH 11.7 3.5 4.9
10 Khris Middleton WSH 9.7 3.3 3.0
11 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.4 5.6 1.5
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.3 8.7 1.9
13 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.4 6.0 1.2
14 Marvin Bagley III WSH 8.0 5.4 1.1
15 Sion James CHA 6.9 3.7 3.0
16 Will Riley WSH 6.8 2.4 1.4
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.2 4.1 1.2
18 Grant Williams CHA 5.7 3.4 1.2
19 Josh Green CHA 5.1 2.6 1.1
20 Jamir Watkins WSH 4.9 3.6 0.8
21 Tre Mann CHA 4.3 1.5 1.2
22 Malaki Branham WSH 3.1 1.0 0.7
23 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.6 1.3 0.8
24 Sharife Cooper WSH 2.5 0.7 0.6
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.4 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.