NBA games

GS @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Postponed
Tip-off

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIN
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Player MIN PTS REB AST

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
14%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
4 Julius Randle MIN
12%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Draymond Green GS
8%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
8 Gui Santos GS
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
32%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.0 5.1 4.3
2 Stephen Curry GS 24.5 4.0 6.7
3 Julius Randle MIN 24.4 7.0 5.0
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN 19.2 5.2 3.8
5 Naz Reid MIN 15.8 6.1 3.0
6 De'Anthony Melton GS 14.8 3.8 2.3
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.9 4.5 5.0
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.1 4.2 3.3
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.1 11.4 1.8
10 Draymond Green GS 10.6 4.8 5.2
11 Moses Moody GS 9.7 2.5 1.6
12 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.5 4.1 2.0
13 Al Horford GS 7.8 5.8 2.3
14 Buddy Hield GS 7.6 2.4 1.1
15 Quinten Post GS 7.5 3.3 1.2
16 Gary Payton II GS 7.4 4.0 1.3
17 Bones Hyland MIN 7.0 1.9 3.2
18 Mike Conley MIN 5.7 1.8 2.4
19 Gui Santos GS 5.5 2.7 1.4
20 Will Richard GS 5.0 2.0 1.7
21 Joan Beringer MIN 4.3 3.0 0.7
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.2 2.5 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.