NBA games

NY @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
112–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY34263022112
PHI34301332109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHI
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 31 5 6
OG Anunoby S 36 23 7 4
Landry Shamet 25 12 4 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 16 10 6 1
Josh Hart S 37 10 13 7
Miles McBride 26 9 1 2
Mikal Bridges S 29 9 3 4
Mitchell Robinson 27 6 10 0
Ariel Hukporti 4 2 3 0
Guerschon Yabusele 3 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 36 38 11 5
Tyrese Maxey S 38 22 3 6
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 37 14 7 3
VJ Edgecombe S 39 14 3 4
Paul George S 32 9 6 2
Dominick Barlow 17 4 2 1
Quentin Grimes 19 4 3 3
Trendon Watford 10 2 1 0
Adem Bona 12 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
4 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Paul George PHI
10%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 VJ Edgecombe PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
43%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.7 3.9 6.2
2 Joel Embiid PHI 27.5 8.3 4.6
3 Jalen Brunson NY 23.5 3.5 5.3
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.3 10.3 3.7
5 OG Anunoby NY 16.9 5.1 3.1
6 Paul George PHI 16.3 4.9 4.1
7 Miles McBride NY 16.1 3.3 3.5
8 VJ Edgecombe PHI 14.9 5.4 5.1
9 Mikal Bridges NY 14.4 4.4 3.4
10 Josh Hart NY 12.5 7.2 5.2
11 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.4 3.6 1.7
12 Quentin Grimes PHI 10.6 3.5 2.3
13 Landry Shamet NY 9.8 2.2 1.5
14 Dominick Barlow PHI 7.5 4.7 1.1
15 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.6 1.8 1.0
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.0 9.2 1.0
17 Andre Drummond PHI 5.6 6.4 0.8
18 Adem Bona PHI 5.2 4.1 0.7
19 Tyler Kolek NY 5.0 2.1 1.8
20 Eric Gordon PHI 4.9 1.0 0.7
21 Trendon Watford PHI 4.2 2.2 1.7
22 Jabari Walker PHI 3.0 2.5 0.6
23 Justin Edwards PHI 3.0 1.2 0.7
24 Guerschon Yabusele NY 2.9 2.0 0.7
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.9 3.4 0.6
26 Jared McCain PHI 2.8 0.9 0.6
27 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.3 1.2 0.5
28 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.4 0.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.